Box Office Prediction: Jason Bourne vs. Star Trek Beyond

Box Office Jason Bourne Star Trek Beyond

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Star Trek Beyond's opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 29 - 31.

This weekend, Jason Bourne opens in 4,026 locations and Bad Moms plays in 3,215 theaters. Nerve, which opened on July 27, is in 2,538 theaters.

#1 - Jason Bourne

Our pick for the top spot is Jason Bourne (read our review), the latest installment in the popular Bourne action franchise. This new film sees the long-awaited returns of star Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass, something moviegoers have been demanding for years. The Damon-led entries were one of the rare instances in which a series steadily improved as it went along, as evidenced by the opening weekend totals of the original trilogy. In 2002, The Bourne Identity debuted with $27.1 million and by The Bourne Ultimatum in 2007, it was all the way up to $69.2 million. Early tracking has suggested something within the neighborhood of Bourne Supremacy's $52.5 million, with the range being set between $50 - 60 million.

Jason Bourne should easily make enough to win the weekend, but it may have to settle for something towards the lower end of those estimates. Unlike the previous films with Damon, the critical reception for Jason Bourne has been mixed, with many considering it a retread of what has come before. The word "boring" has been used to describe it as well, which is hardly a glowing recommendation. Interest in seeing Damon come back to an iconic role will prevent Jason Bourne from being a flop, but it'll be hard for it to set a new franchise record.

Jason Bourne

#2 - Star Trek Beyond

Look for last week's champ, Star Trek Beyond (read our review), to slide to second place in its second weekend. The Kelvin Timeline threequel posted a solid, but unremarkable $59.2 million during its opening weekend, noticeably below either of its two predecessors. Despite positive reviews and the celebration of Star Trek's 50th anniversary giving Beyond a boost, it hasn't been able to parlay that into a strong box office performance. With word-of-mouth on its side, Star Trek 3 should have decent legs, but it will nevertheless take a bit of a hit in terms of ticket sales.

#3 - Bad Moms

Coming in third should be Bad Moms (read our review), a new R-rated comedy from the writers of The Hangover. The film sports a unique premise (overworked moms let loose by acting "bad"), and the ensemble features a number of recognizable names like Mila Kunis, Kristin Bell, and Christina Applegate. Female-led comedies have found success in the past (see: Paul Feig's filmography), so there will most likely be an audience for Bad Moms as well. It'll be counter-programming for the big studio tentpoles that are currently playing. Reviews have been generally positive, which will help its prospects. Tracking has it pegged for a $27 million opening weekend.

Kristin Bell Mila Kunis Kathryn Hahn Bad Moms

#4 - The Secret Life of Pets

Our choice for fourth is The Secret Life of Pets (read our review), which came in second place last week. There isn't much else that can be said about the animated hit's box office totals. The latest from Illumination Entertainment has been one of the few bright spots of the summer, and that should continue as families will still be interested in seeing it.

#5 - Lights Out

Rounding out the top five should be Lights Out (read our review). The horror movie opened in third last week with $21.6 million. While it isn't a breakout mainstream hit, it's one of the only options currently playing for fans of the horror genre, meaning viewers looking for a scare will still want to check it out.

Last Week's Recap

Our picks:

  1. Star Trek Beyond
  2. Ice Age: Collision Course
  3. The Secret Life of Pets
  4. Ghostbusters
  5. Lights Out


  1. Star Trek Beyond
  2. The Secret Life of Pets
  3. Lights Out
  4. Ice Age: Collision Course
  5. Ghostbusters


Next Week: How high will Suicide Squad go?

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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