Nine years after teaming up for The Bourne Ultimatum, star Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass are back for another round in the action franchise with Jason Bourne. Set in the "post-Snowden world" of national security and espionage, it sees Bourne unravel another CIA conspiracy, looking to take down their new assassin black ops program Iron Hand. The film features a star-studded supporting cast, including Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander, and Julia Stiles.
Damon's return to his iconic role was met with much enthusiasm, but now there's some question as to whether or not it was worth the hype. The first wave of professional Jason Bourne reviews painted a mixed picture, suggesting that the action set pieces are as strong as ever, but the narrative is somewhat pedestrian in nature, a disappointing turn for this particular series. While the critical reception isn't exactly what Universal was hoping for at this point in time, a strong commercial performance would make the film a worthwhile investment. Now, the box office projections for Jason Bourne are in.
Depending on which report one reads, the movie will gross anywhere between $50 - 60 million in its first three days. Variety has it on pace for the former amount, while The Wrap indicates it will be closer to the latter. These estimates mean that it could top the $52.5 million start of 2004's The Bourne Supremacy, yet will fall short of besting Ultimatum's $69.2 debut - despite nearly a decade of ticket price inflation.
Still, this doesn't mean that Bourne is in bad shape. The series has never been one to storm out of the gates with massive opening weekends before. The latest installment should end up in the same ballpark as the other films featuring Damon, which were all financially successful. In addition, Jason Bourne should easily earn the number one spot on the charts, passing last week's champ Star Trek Beyond. Variety says it's on track to bring in $300 million worldwide, which is more than enough to spin the $120 million budget into a nice profit. As long as it has strong legs, Jason Bourne will be just fine.
That being said, it should be interesting to see how the film holds up as its run progresses. In its second weekend, Bourne goes up against the juggernaut that is Suicide Squad. The DC Comics film has generated a substantial amount of buzz thanks to its killer marketing campaign and is poised to break August box office records. Some projections say it will gross around $125 million in its first three days, blowing all of its "competition" out of the water. Though there will still be an audience for Bourne as we make our way to August, most of the attention will be on Suicide Squad, taking away business from most of the other films playing.
Given the circumstances, it seems unlikely that Jason Bourne can set a new high for the franchise (Ultimatum made $227.4 million), but it should still post solid numbers. Damon and Greengrass reuniting has given the film a boost in awareness and anticipation, as many fans have long wanted to see the duo make another entry in their famous series. In a summer chock full of box office bombs and flops, Bourne looks like it will be one of the few bright spots.
Jason Bourne opens in U.S. theaters July 29, 2016.