Box Office Prediction - The Last Jedi vs. Insidious: The Last Key

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 5 - 7, 2017.

This weekend, Insidious: The Last Key premieres in 3,116 theaters. Also, awards contenders Molly's Game and Darkest Hour expand nationwide.

#1 - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Our choice for the top spot this weekend is Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (read our review). Despite the presence of Star Wars: The Last Jedi during the holiday season, the latest Dwayne Johnson vehicle has held its own very nicely, even overtaking Episode VIII on the daily charts. Due to the positive word-of-mouth and its status as a fun family film, people are interested in seeing Jumanji instead of another round or two with Star Wars. The adventure flick has given Sony a hit they desperately needed, and everything is pointing to it winning the weekend after a strong start. It should still be a close race for the #1 position, but with Welcome to the Jungle emerging as the favorite, we're giving the edge to it.

#2 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi

After three weekends as the champion, we expect Star Wars: The Last Jedi (read our review) will fall to second in its fourth weekend. The sequel took a major hit in its second weekend following a $220 million debut, but it steadied in the third weekend, earning $52.5 million. Though the film has proven to be quite divisive amongst audiences, this is still Star Wars and it remains one of the biggest movies in theaters currently playing. Whether fans are up for a second (or third) viewing or more casual audiences are finally getting a chance to catch up now that the holidays are over, Last Jedi should do just fine.

#3 - Insidious: The Last Key

Look for new horror movie Insidious: The Last Key (read our review) to come in third during its opening weekend. This is the fourth installment of the Insidious franchise, which has been running since 2011. The property peaked in terms of popularity with Insidious: Chapter 2, which grossed $40.2 million in its first three days back in 2013. Coming out a couple years later, Chapter 3 was a far more modest performer, earning $52.2 million for its entire domestic run. It's safe to say this series is a favorite among horror fans, but isn't a crossover hit like some similar titles are.

As a result, The Last Key should do well within its niche, even if it shouldn't really break out. For the most part, the reviews have been quite poor, with the most positive marks being reserved for star Lin Shaye's turn. Other than that, it doesn't appear this latest entry has anything of value to offer, which will hurt its commercial prospects. Estimates have it pegged for approximately $16.8 million in its first frame.

#4 - Pitch Perfect 3

Our pick for fourth is Pitch Perfect 3 (read our review), which came in third last week with $16.8 million. Demand for the sequel isn't very high, but it's been able to play well for its target audience. Without many new offerings this week, it should be able to stick around for at least another week.

#5 - The Greatest Showman

Rounding out the top five should be The Greatest Showman (read our review). Hugh Jackman's musical hasn't made much of an impression since it opened a couple weeks back, bringing in just $60.7 million domestically as of this writing. A turnaround for the film doesn't seem to be in the cards, and it will continue to slide down the charts.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks

  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • Pitch Perfect 3
  • The Greatest Showman
  • Downsizing


  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • Pitch Perfect 3
  • The Greatest Showman
  • Ferdinand

Next week: The Commuter, Paddington 2, Proud Mary, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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