Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle are both expected to top Insidious: The Last Key at the box office. The fourth installment in the Insidious series is one of the most anticipated horror movies of 2018 and the year's first major wide release. The Last Key looks to continue a great run for Blumhouse Pictures, which churned out economical hits like Split, Get Out, and Happy Death Day in 2017.
However, The Last Jedi and Welcome to the Jungle remain strong holdovers despite already being in theaters for multiple weeks. The Last Key still has a good chance to turn a nice profit for Blumhouse and Universal, assuming its budget is around the $10 million spent for Insidious: Chapter 3 - which earned nearly $113 million worldwide. Nevertheless, the latest projections suggest that The Last Jedi and Welcome to the Jungle are too strong for The Last Key to overcome.
As reported by Variety on Wednesday, The Last Key is expected to earn about $15-18 million at about 3,000 theaters in its opening weekend. That number would fall well short of the $28-30 million each expected for Jumanji and Star Wars. Welcome to the Jungle overtook The Last Jedi at the domestic box office for the first time on Monday, but the two movies should expect a close battle - one that sees Insidious landing in a distant third place.
The Last Key adds to an Insidious franchise that Variety estimates has earned over $357 million worldwide. That's off combined budgets of around $16 million. The official budget for The Last Key isn't publicly known, but even with the combined budget of the first three films, its opening weekend would be a solid one in spite of finishing third.
Lin Shaye returns to star in the fourth Insidious movie after appearing in the first three. Leigh Wannell (Saw) once again wrote the fourth chapter after writing the first three. The big newcomer is director Adam Robitel, who wrote and directed 2014's The Taking of Deborah Logan. The team should still feel good about The Last Key's box office prospects, even with projections expecting the movie not to make a dent in the juggernaut that is The Last Jedi or the Dwayne Johnson-starring hit Welcome to the Jungle.
It may be a concern for Universal that Insidious: Chapter 3 had the lowest domestic box office total of the series with about $52 million. But it's likely that Insidious: The Last Key will be profitable if it approaches that benchmark. Blumhouse has become a pretty safe bet in the past year and change, and a loss to Star Wars: The Last Jedi or Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle isn't exactly a shocker. But the hope for the studios is that the sequel can sustain its opening run and avoid a big drop-off after the premiere.
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