An interesting aspect of the release of Avatar: The Way of Water is the debate about how much money the film will make. The first of four sequels to James Cameron's 2009 Avatar is released with a lot of pressure on its shoulders. Not only does it need to do well financially itself, but it also needs to set up and justify three other films, which are already well into development. This is the first film James Cameron has released since the original, and if his track record is anything to go by given both Titanic and Avatar broke all-time box office records, then the film will make a considerable amount of money.

Avatar: The Way of Water has had a strong opening weekend worldwide, including more money at the global box office than Black Adam made over its entire theatrical run, $441 million compared to roughly $400 million. Good openings don't automatically mean that the film will do well overall. Its success might be front-loaded with everyone going to see it within the first week, meaning it won't have the legs to be hugely successful. A lot of money has to be made before Avatar: The Way of Water comes even close to Avatar's numbers, so there is still ambiguity over how much of a success the film can be considered.

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How Much Does Avatar: The Way Of Water Need To Make To Break Even?

Avatar the way of water 3D

Avatar currently sits at the top of the table as the highest-grossing movie in history at $2.9 billion. Even with a relatively strong opening weekend, whether the sequel can do those numbers is yet to be seen. Per GQ, James Cameron implies that Avatar: The Way of Water needs $2 billion to break even, but that is unlikely. Differing reports say it costs between $250m - $450m, but according to THR, the budget is around the $350 million mark. This means that it's one of the most expensive movies ever, before factoring in marketing and distribution, which raises that number considerably higher.

If those numbers are consistent for all four sequels, then they would collectively cost around $1 billion, meaning $2 billion is probably an accurate estimate for what the collective franchise needs to make a profit. Anywhere from $500 million to $600 million would likely be on the money for Avatar: The Way of Water to start being profitable. If the opening weekend is anything to go off, it looks set to be a big win for Disney.

Will Avatar: The Way Of Water Make Over $1 Billion?

Avatar The Way of Water Jake and Neytiri and their family

With over $400 million in its opening weekend, Avatar: The Way of Water looks set to cross $1 billion sooner rather than later. Domestically, the first Avatar made $77 million in its opening weekend, and Avatar: The Way of Water has made over $100 million. This means that the sequel had a better opening than the original. This doesn't confirm anything, and it might not have the same novelty to build box office momentum as the original, but it is off to a good start.

The latest film to cross the $1 billion mark was Jurassic World: Dominion in the summer, showing the movie box office is improving since 2020 and the pandemic. Reactions to that film were mixed, and it didn't get the buzz that Avatar: The Way of Water is getting, so if a film like that can cross $1 billion, Avatar 2 looks to have started brightly. Spider-Man: Far From Home grossed $90 million on its opening weekend, notably less than Avatar 2, and went on to make almost $2 billion, so Avatar 2 is all but set to hit $1 billion worldwide.

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Will Avatar: The Way Of Water Make Over $2 Billion?

Avatar The Way of Water

If Avatar: The Way of Water is set to make over $1 billion, then hitting $2 billion is a much bigger ask. Only five box office hits including Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker have ever grossed $2 billion. In the case of both of those films, there was a massive build-up to their release, with hype and anticipation going into overdrive. While a good opening weekend helps, to hit $2 billion a film needs tremendous legs at the box office, with audiences going week after week and word of mouth will be vital.

Not only will it need viewers who haven't seen the film to go out and buy a ticket, but it will also need those that already have to love it so much to go again. The original Avatar has the top spot because it just kept making money, and fans kept returning to watch it again. This was due to its ground-breaking visuals and the excitement surrounding 3D in 2009. While Avatar 2 is getting plaudits for its visuals, 3D is not as exciting as in 2009, even if Avatar: The Way of Water's 3D is immersive and technologically innovative. So, if Avatar: The Way of Water has any hope of making $2 billion, it will be on the quality of the film alone.

While the $1 billion club seems to add new members regularly, the $2 billion club is more elusive. Top Gun: Maverick had incredible success in 2022 with word of mouth pushing it on week after week, but even that only made $1.5 billion. Spider-Man: No Way Home, one of the most anticipated movies of recent memory, couldn't even hit $2 billion. It's not impossible for Avatar 2, but it will have an uphill battle.

Can Avatar: The Way Of Water Become The First $3 Billion Movie?

Jake and Neytiri looking in awe in Avatar The Way of Water

Not even Avengers: Endgame made $3 billion, and neither did Avatar. It is improbable that Avatar: The Way of Water will be that film, but never say never. The original Avatar currently stands at $2.9 billion, and that total includes re-releases. It's a monumental task trying to match the money that the original made, let alone topping every other film that's been released in cinematic history.

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It's a task that is likely too big for Avatar: The Way of Water. Avatar needed a perfect storm of momentum, timing, and luck to get it to reach the top spot. Avatar: The Way of Water will need luck on its side to even reach $2 billion, so it'll need a miracle for $3 billion. That being said, as the years have shown, never count out James Cameron.

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