How Much Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Needs To Be A Box Office Success

Expectations are that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will be another box office hit for Marvel Studios, and here is how much it needs to make to be a success. The original Black Panther surpassed all expectations financially as it went on to make $1.3 billion worldwide. It is the highest-grossing solo movie for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and all eyes are on Black Panther 2 to see if Ryan Coogler's sequel can surpass this mark. Phase 4's box office potential has taken a small hit in a post-COVID landscape, but Spider-Man: No Way Home's record-setting performance shows there is still great potential for Marvel.

When it comes to how much Black Panther: Wakanda Forever needs to make to be a box office success, the rule of thumb is that a movie must make between two and three times its budget to be profitable for the studio. Disney and Marvel have not officially disclosed the budget for Black Panther 2, but it is safe to assume that it cost at least $200 million to make. That would mean somewhere between $400-600M worldwide is what Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's box office needs to make to be a success. Even if the sequel's budget was closer to $250M, the marker for the sequel to cross only jumps to $500-$750M.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Likely Will Be A Box Office Success

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There is every expectation that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will be a box office success. Tracking for the movie's opening weekend domestically estimates that it will make at least $175M in its first three days. The top end of the projections calls for Black Panther 2's box office opening to even outgross the original's $202M opening weekend. This will give the movie a fast start to becoming profitable and earning back its budget potentially with the domestic box office alone in a short amount of time. Once the international box office is also factored in, Black Panther 2's likelihood of success becomes even greater.

To further prove that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is likely to be a box office success, MCU Phase 4 indicates that it should have no problem at least breaking even. Black Widow is the only Phase 4 movie not to make at least $400M worldwide, and its box office was crippled by a simultaneous Disney+ launch. Black Panther 2's box office is more likely to fall in line with Thor: Love and Thunder ($760M) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($955M), which will easily make the final MCU Phase 4 movie a success for Marvel Studios and Disney.

Will Black Panther 2's Box Office Beat The First Movie?

The biggest question about Black Panther 2's box office is if it will manage to beat the original movie. The 2018 film made $1.3 billion worldwide, and $700M of the total came domestically, making it one of the highest-grossing movies of all-time. It is not currently expected that Black Panther 2 will top the original's domestic total, but that could change if Ryan Coogler's sequel is as powerful and action-packed as it seems. The first Black Panther did make over $100M in China, and it is not confirmed that the sequel will release there. That hurts Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's chances of beating the first movie's box office. No one expected the original film to do as well as it did though. Namor's involvement could tap into another underrepresented demographic of audiences, so perhaps there is a chance that the sequel beats Black Panther.

Next: MCU Movies & Shows To Rewatch Before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever