It looks like Harry Potter might be making it to the small screen, after books, movies, games, theme parks, and even a Broadway play. Rumor has it that HBO is working on an exclusive series in this universe, leading to all kinds of speculation as to what the series might be. Ideas for sequels, prequels, spin-offs, and more abound, but one thing isn't clear yet (beyond whether this is officially happening) - and that's if it's even worth attempting.
Harry Potter is a hugely successful franchise, and for many fans, it was a defining part of their childhood. However, the success of the original books and films doesn't guarantee that a follow up would do as well. So should HBO create a new series based in the wizarding world, what will make it likely to recapture the magic of the original, and what might be the reasons that it would tank?
Succeed: Nostalgia
The most obvious reason for the probable success of a Harry Potter series is that it is, quite simply, hugely popular. In the same way that many older TV shows are having wildly successful revivals (and more are on the way), audiences love nostalgia and returning to beloved existing characters. A new Harry Potter series would capitalize on this to a huge extent, and plenty of people would watch no matter what the plot, simply because it's Harry Potter.
Huge Risk: Too High A Bar
On the flip side, there may be an issue with the fact that the original series is so beloved - that fans are notoriously unforgiving with revived worlds. Star Wars, another massive universe that was originally beloved by fans, dealt with a huge amount of criticism from fans who simply didn't feel that it captured the magic of the original. In many ways, this is an impossible task, and with a bar set as dizzyingly high as Harry Potter's, it may be that nothing could measure up.
Succeed: An Established World & Fan Base
An established world and fan base is a huge boon to studios - which is why so many movies and series are based on books in the first place! Not having to struggle to create a world from scratch makes life much easier, and because the Wizarding World has been expanded through games, posts, plays, and more, there is a lot of available material to choose from.
Huge Risk: Original Actors Will Not Return
Tom Felton, who played Draco Malfoy, has said that he does not believe the original cast would reunite on screen - and given their current ages and how busy most of them are with other projects, it makes sense that few, if any, would show up to reprise their original roles.
Which leaves a bit of a gaping hole, in any series taking place within the timeline of Harry's life. A re-casting for a total reboot could fix this, but comes with its own set of risks, as fans dislike seeing favorite characters change.
Succeed: Instant Buzz
The nebulous 'buzz' is something that can make or break a series, and this is something that a Harry Potter series would have in spades. Just the rumor of the series was huge news, so by the time it actually made it to screen, a huge number of people would be likely to tune in out of pure curiosity.
Given that buzz can be a difficult thing to generate and manipulate, having it ready-made (especially given the controversy surrounding author Rowling) is a powerful thing.
Huge Risk: Fantastic Beasts Is In Trouble
Looking at other attempts to expand the franchise, it seems that the world may be starting to get a little sick of Harry Potter. The original books and movies were an incredible success, and the play (which followed soon after) was equally huge. However, the current film franchise, Fantastic Beasts, is only two movies in (of a planned five) and is starting to founder. The third movie (as yet untitled) is underway, but fan response isn't enthusiastic - and that's even without the issues around Johnny Depp's departure. If a movie series cannot succeed, does a film series following Fantastic Beasts have a better chance?
Succeed: A Chance To Learn From Mistakes
It is possible, of course, that the issues with Fantastic Beasts (including being potentially too ambitious, planning a five-film series from the start) could be resolved in a series. Lower stakes, better casting, and a different approach to the plot could make all the difference - and with the franchise still popular, it could be possible to shift focus from the films to a series, and call it a day on Newt's adventures. It may even be an option to switch the Fantastic Beasts saga from big to small screen, changing the way that its success is measured.
Huge Risk: The High Cost Of The Concept
One of the biggest risks with a universe like this one is that it takes a huge amount of CGI and expensive effects and sets to make the stories work. While there are definitely ways to make a series set in the wizarding world that uses less than the original films did (no major battles and rampaging giants, for one thing!), it would be impossible to make a series without any use of effects - because without them, where is the magic? And the higher the cost of a project, the more it needs to make to be considered a success.
Succeed: A Less Risky Format
The costs may be higher, but the format itself is less risky, especially as it would be on HBO Max, the streaming service. Streaming has proven to be a great way to get fans watching, and is a much lower risk than a big blockbuster outing, that needs to start raking it in from opening night, or risk being pulled from theaters quickly.
Huge Risk: Fans Cancelling J K Rowling
The biggest reason that this is not the time for a Harry Potter series is that the fandom has turned on J K Rowling, after the author made a series of transphobic comments, then doubled down on them, essentially confirming her transphobic position. Unsurprisingly, fans were furious to learn how bigoted the creator is, and started leaving the fandom in droves. Many have made it clear that Rowling is cancelled, and that while plenty can still find joy in the books, few want to continue supporting her financially - and that would mean boycotting a series that would line her pockets further. It's a big risk to take, launching a new series when the creator is hated by the fans.