Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's opening weekend fixes bad trend for the MCU. Despite earning less in its opening weekend than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's box office is actually reversing a trend that's become one of the biggest problems with the box office of post-Avengers: Endgame MCU movies. The movie has only been in theaters for a short time, but its performance already stands in stark contrast to other recent MCU movies that have struggled to maintain their box office momentum after their first week in theaters.

The Guardians of the Galaxy movies have always been off in their own corner of the MCU, and while their box office performance has never crossed the $1 billion mark like some of the MCU's biggest hitters, the $772.8 million of Guardians of the Galaxy and $863.6 million of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is pretty impressive for movies about a talking raccoon. The MCU's box office has gotten less reliable than it once was, but its second-weekend results for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 show a strong hold, and could signal a big reversal from one of the MCU's worst box office trends.

Related: Guardians of the Galaxy 3 Ending Explained (What Happens, What's Next & What It Means)

The MCU Has a Post-Endgame Box Office Problem

2022 MCU Box Office Movies Thor Doctor Strange

Avengers: Endgame earned $2.8 billion and became the #2 highest-grossing movie of all time, but the MCU's box office has developed a concerning trend through Phase 4 and Phase 5. There have certainly been big hits like Spider-Man: No Way Home, which earned $1.9 billion and became the #7 highest-grossing movie of all time, but many other post-Engame movies struggled at the box office, seeing smaller opening weekends and worse legs. The problem reached a low-point with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which opened higher than Ant-Man and the Wasp, but crashed in the following weeks, ultimately grossing less than its predecessor.

While post-pandemic breakout movies like Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie all saw massive success because of strong legs, not because of massive opening weekends, the MCU trended the opposite direction. Movies in Phase 3 of the MCU earned an average of 36 percent of their box office in their opening weekend, but Phase 4 went up to 37 percent, then Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania kicked off Phase 5 by earning nearly 50 percent of its total box office opening weekend. Phase 4 and 5 also saw the MCU's first two "Rotten" scores in Rotten tomatoes, signaling trouble for the franchise.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Has One of the MCU's Best Second Weekend Box Office Drops

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 earned strong reviews with a Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score and one of the MCU's best audience scores in Rotten Tomatoes, but its opening weekend box office of $118.4 million was $28 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's low opening weekend box office was obviously slightly concerning considering the MCU's recent trend of poor legs, but Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 went on to earn $62.6 million in its second weekend, a drop of just 47.1 percent, the second-best drop in the history of the MCU only trailing Black Panther's 44.7 percent drop after a $202 million opening.

The 47.1 percent drop is so good it brings the Phase 5 average - following Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's MCU worst drop of 69.9 percent - down to 58.5 percent, which is lower than Phase 4's average second-weekend drop of 64.4 percent, meaning officially reversing the upward trend in second-weekend drops. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2's 55.5 percent second-weekend drop was higher than the MCU average, so if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 can maintain its strong performance with at least a 3.29 multiplier (better than all but three MCU movies), it has a chance to beat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2's $389.8 domestic total.

Why Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's Box Office is Exactly What the MCU Needs

Montage of the Guardians of the Galaxy — Rocket, Cosmo, and Groot — and a poster from Avengers: Endgame.

The consistent and reliably strong performance of MCU movies in Rotten Tomatoes and at the box office from Phase 1-3 made the MCU the de facto gold standard for blockbuster movie performance, so Phases 4 and 5's drop in review scores and box office didn't only raise concerns for the health of the MCU, but also revived fears of the long-heralded "superhero fatigue." The downward trend and front-loading of the MCU's box office is a pretty clear sign that the target audience is still showing up and the general audience is tuning out, but Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's box office alleviates some of those fears.

There's still a very clear problem with the downtrend in review scores and box office after Avengers: Endgame in Phase 4 and especially Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in Phase 5, but the good news for Marvel Studios is it's not due to "superhero fatigue" and audiences rejecting comic book movies as a whole. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 proves that the right movie can still get audiences to buy theater tickets, and quality filmmaking can ensure the box office doesn't disappear after the first weekend. So, while other post-Endgame movies are still a cause for concern, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is evidence that Marvel Studios can fix the problem.

It's not clear how the rest of Phase 5 of the MCU will fare at the box office, but the next two movies, The Marvels and Captain America: New World Order are both sequels to movies that grossed over $1 billion and outperformed the MCU average second-weekend drop, which could be a good sign. Granted, with Blade's script problems and the writer's strike, the rest of Phase 5 could have more immediate problems to figure out before even worrying about box office potential.

As for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, its full box office performance won't be known for many more weeks, but so far it's defying the MCU's negative post-Avengers: Endgame, giving Phase 5 a much-needed boost. If Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 maintains its strong box office legs it'll still fall well under the $1 billion mark, as with all other Guardians of the Galaxy movies, but its arrival couldn't come at a more important time for the MCU.

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