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Golden Globes 2019 Movies Predictions: What Will Win, What Should Win

UPDATE: Here's the official list of Golden Globes winners in 2019!

Join us as we try to predict the 2019 Golden Globes winners on the movie side. The Golden Globes are the first major film and television awards out of the gate every new year. And, as is always the case when a show is the first one out of the gate, that means the winners at the Golden Globes often set a precedent for future awards ceremonies to come - mostly notably, the annual Academy Awards or Oscars.

By now, the current awards season has taken its share of twists and turns on the movie side alone. Expected contenders like Damien Chazelle's First Man and Steve McQueen's Widows have struggled to gain traction, even as Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman, Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite, Bradley Cooper's A Star is Born, and Ryan Coogler's Black Panther have all raced to the front of the pack. Of course, some of these frontrunners are ahead of their immediate competitors and are projected to take home the biggest prizes of the evening, come Golden Globes Sunday.

Related: Black Panther & A Quiet Place Among PGA Best Picture Nominees

At the same time, it can be difficult to accurately predict the Golden Globes' outcome, given the idiosyncratic tendencies of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (see also: when the HFPA nominated films like The Martian and Get Out for Best Comedy/Musical in years past). Nevertheless, we'll have a go at determining this year's final results. Here are our Predictions for the 2019 Golden Globes Movie Winners.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Nominees

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • If Beale Streat Could Talk
  • A Star Is Born

Who Will Win: A Star is Born

Who Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Have Been a Contender: Widows, First Man

There was some pushback against Cooper's remake early on, but any real controversy around A Star is Born has since been dwarfed by the responses to films like Vice and Green Book (which we'll get to shortly). A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are the only true box office hits in this category too... though, Cooper's film definitely has the advantage over the polarizing Queen biopic. Barry Jenkins' If Beal Street Could Talk only started its box office run a couple weeks back, so it stands to gain the most commercially from a surprise victory here. Then again, neither Jenkins nor Lee's latest offerings are really being heralded as breakthroughs for them the way Cooper's directorial debut is - something that gives A Star is Born yet another leg-up over its biggest rivals.

On the other hand: Black Panther was a true cultural phenomenon, and an unexpected win here would certainly shake up this year's Best Picture Oscar race. Still, even if it goes home empty-handed this Sunday, at least T'Challa's solo adventure got some recognition. The same cannot be said for Chazelle and McQueen's latest acclaimed projects, both of which may've been hurt by their disappointing performances at the box office.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Nominees

  • Crazy Rich Asians
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Vice

Who Will Win: The Favourite

Who Should Win: The Favourite

Should Have Been a Contender: Paddington 2

Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins Returns are easily the biggest crowd-pleasers in this category, but neither one is a favorite to win the way, er, The Favourite is. The latter also has an advantage in that it's directed by the Greek satirist Lanthimos, and in years past the HFPA has very much had a soft spot for distinctly European movies and shows. It's almost surprising that the (very) British sequel Paddington 2 didn't secure a nomination in this category for the same reason - though, considering it was up against a satirical Dick Cheney biopic and a movie about a real-life interracial friendship, maybe not so much.

Speaking of which: Green Book was expected to be this year's Hidden Figures early on, until the debate about the film's (lack of) accuracy and white-centric viewpoint took off and Peter Farrelly's movie under-whelmed with its financial performance. Adam McKay's Vice has only just begun its box office run, but it's another movie that seems way too polarizing to take a win in this category. An upset is always a possibility, but for now it feels like The Favourite is pretty much a lock for this one.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Lady Gaga in A Star is Born

Nominees

  • Glenn Close, The Wife
  • Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
  • Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Who Will Win: Lady Gaga

Who Should Win: Melissa McCarthy

Should Have Been a Contender: Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale

Over the decades, A Star is Born has become somewhat infamous for being a means to an end for its leads to take home some big awards. Judy Garland and Barbara Streisand both won Golden Globes for their performances in the 1954 and 1976 versions of the film, respectively, and Gaga looks to follow suit for the 2018 iteration. Still, McCarthy shouldn't be entirely discounted in this category. Her performance as biographer turned literary forger Lee Israel is a great example of how a comedic actor can still be funny in a more serious role, and doubles as a nice reminder of how good McCarthy is at drama in general (see also: her past work in films like St. Vincent).

Kidman and Close are equally deserving of their nominations, but have won Golden Globes before (multiple ones, in fact) and are unlikely to derail Gaga for the very same reason. Pike's only been nominated for a Globe once before (for Gone Girl), but doesn't seem to have enough momentum behind her to land a dark horse victory, either. As for Erivo: it would've been great to see her nominated for her own terrific singing and acting in the under-appreciated Bad Times at the El Royale. Of course, the story may change next year, after Erivo plays Harriet Tubman in Kasi Lemmons' forthcoming biopic.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Bradley Cooper and Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

Nominees

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
  • Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
  • Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
  • Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  • John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper

Should Have Been a Contender: Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Like Gaga, Cooper is a frontrunner to win for his A Star is Born performance. He's been nominated for Golden Globe acting awards twice already, so third time should indeed be the charm - keeping Cooper firmly on track to win that Oscar he's been angling towards, in the process. The actor-turned filmmaker doesn't really have a lot of competition in this category, either. Washington, Dafoe, and Hedges were all widely applauded for their performances this past year, but nothing on the level with Cooper's turn as a fading alcoholic rock star. Malek, meanwhile, was celebrated for his own rock star performance early on, before his awards buzz cooled in the wake of Bohemian Rhapsody's heavily criticized portrayal of Freddie Mercury and his life.

By comparison, Phoenix failed to make the cut altogether for his acclaimed turn as a traumatized veteran-turned hired gun in You Were Never Really Here. He's been nominated for a Golden Globe several times already and even won for Walk the Line, so that may partly explain why the HFPA overlooked him this year. Heck, if Joker goes over well, Phoenix might find himself back in the race this time in 2020.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Nominees

  • Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite
  • Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
  • Charlize Theron, Tully
  • Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Who Will Win: Olivia Coleman

Who Should Win: Olivia Coleman

Should Have Been a Contender: Blake Lively, A Simple Favor

Awards season prognosticators have been predicting that Coleman will win all the awards since The Favourite had its festival premiere, and with valid reason. Coleman's performance as Queen Anne plays to her strengths as a great character actor who can be dead serious just as easily as utterly goofy, and the film at large is a great showcase for her talents. This category is a great collection of performances in general, not least of all because they're strikingly different from one another. Fisher in particular is a youngster who's hopefully just getting started, and it's nice to see Wu gaining more recognition after her years of great work on Fresh Off the Boat (which she received her previous Globe nomination for).

All things considered, though, this feels like Coleman's category to lose. She's earning the loudest buzz of the five contenders right now, and that shouldn't change after Golden Globes night, either. Nevertheless, it would've been fun if Blake Lively had managed to sneak into the nominees for her performances as a cheeky femme fatale in Paul Feig's farcical take on the Gone Girl formula (or whatever you want to call A Simple Favor).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Nominees

  • Christian Bale, Vice
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
  • Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
  • John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Who Will Win: Robert Redford

Who Should Win: John C. Reilly

Should Have Been a Contender: Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Surprisingly, Redford's only ever won a (regular) Globe for his direction on 1980's Ordinary People, and his sole previous Golden Globe movie acting nomination came in 2014 for All is Lost. The Sundance Kid went back and forth a bit on whether he's really retiring while promoting The Old Man & the Gun, but frankly it's hard to imagine a more fitting performance to go out on than his charismatic turn as a gentlemanly bank robber who simply loves what he does for a living. Point being: this is probably the last time the HFPA will get a chance to honor him, and the odds seem in favor of them taking it.

Keeping that in mind, this category is more of a open race, comparatively speaking. Bale previously won a Globe for his performance in The Fighter, but that was a win in Drama, so the HFPA may yet recognize his "comedic" take on Dick Cheney instead. Miranda is an internationally renowned talent and shouldn't be counted out either, even if this is his first acting nomination (his previous nomination was for Original Song on Moana). The goes double for Reilly, who - Holmes and Watson aside, which we'll forgive him for - brought his A-game to 2018 releases like The Sisters Brothers, Stan & Ollie, and even Ralph Breaks the Internet. Mortensen would be the only real upset here, in light of the diminished buzz around Green Book right now.

And last, but not least, Grant was always a long shot for a nomination this year... but, frankly, he deserved a spot for Paddington 2's musical mid-credits scene alone.

Next Page: Best Supporting Actor/Actress, Director & Screenplay

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