Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Neighbors's opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 16 - 18, 2014.
This weekend, monster movie Godzilla hits over 3,800 theaters and sports dramedy Million Dollar Arm debuts in 3,000 theaters. On the limited front, The Immigrant plays on three screens.
#1 - Godzilla
Our most anticipated film of the year is the clear choice for the top spot this weekend. The hype machine for Gareth Edward’s reboot of the famous movie monsters has been building for some time now (dating back to Comic-Con 2012) and recent trailers and TV spots have teased moviegoers with a fresh and exciting take on the franchise. While early reviews have been mixed, most have leaned towards the positive side of things, giving audiences reason to believe that Godzilla will be worth their while.
The cast lacks any clear movie stars (Bryan Cranston is loved by many for Walter White, but he’s not a box office draw), but that shouldn’t hurt this film’s chances of posting big numbers opening weekend. The brand is certainly recognizable enough to carry it and as it’s still early in the summer, Godzilla doesn’t have to deal with too much competition from similar tentpoles.
#2 - Neighbors
Look for last week’s champ, Neighbors, (read our review) to fall to second this weekend. Using its “frat vs. family” set up, positive word-of-mouth, and likable cast, the comedy was able to become a big hit during its first three days, making nearly $50 million opening weekend. It won’t be able to contend with a major blockbuster, but Neighbors should still hold very well, given that it has a monopoly on the genre and could be some amusing counter-programming.
#3 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony’s superhero sequel, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (read our review), is our pick for third place. After winning its opening weekend with a robust $91.6 million, the film took a huge 61.2% fall last week and only made $35.5 million. Spider-Man is one of the most popular comic book characters around, but it’s obvious that the franchise doesn’t have as much box office power as it did during Tobey Maguire’s heyday. As Godzilla smashes into theaters, the numbers for Marc Webb’s take on the Web Head will continue to fall.
#4 - Million Dollar Arm
Coming in fourth should be Million Dollar Arm. Based on a true story, the film is selling itself as an inspiring, uplifting tale for families to check out (it’s rated PG). However, the odds seem to be stacked against it in terms of hitting a home run at the box office. Even though sports are extremely popular in America, movies based on said sports are a mixed bag commercially. For every 42 (over $95 million), there’s a Draft Day ($27.8 million). Even 2011’s Moneyball – complete with Oscar buzz and Brad Pitt – managed a solid, yet unremarkable $75.6 million.
Also working against Million Dollar Arm is the cast. Jon Hamm is well known for his role on Mad Men, but he is largely untested as a leading man in film. The timing could be a factor as well, seeing that is a lot of competition the movie will have to deal with. Baseball aficionados will no doubt be interested, but it’ll be hard for this film to be a crossover success.
#5 - The Other Woman
Rounding out the top five could be The Other Woman (read our review). The female-centric comedy has held well during its three weeks of release, finishing in third last weekend. It won’t post huge numbers, but it should continue to make a healthy sum for at least one more week.
#10 - Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return
That's it for this week's breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it's time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Godzilla - 3,800+ theaters
- Million Dollar Arm - 3,000 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- The Immigrant - 3 theaters
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Neighbor's opening): Sal reports that Chris B. is the winner with a score of 13.
For the record, here are our picks from last week - along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (1)
- #2 - Neighbors (1)
- #3 - The Other Woman (3)
- #4 - Heaven is for Real (3)
- #5 - Rio 2 (1)
- #10 - The Quiet Ones
- Final Score: 9 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)