George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire books are known for killing characters in shocking fashion, but there are some guaranteed to survive his next novel in the series, The Winds of Winter. Ever since the first book, which became Game of Thrones season 1, these unexpected deaths have been a hallmark of the book, the show, and even prequel series House of the Dragon. And with more characters in the book than could fit into a TV show, there are more people at risk of dying when Martin's long-awaited sixth novel does eventually release.
Because of that, then inevitably who will die is among the many questions The Winds of Winter must answer. The truth is that just about anyone, in theory, could, although some are relatively safer than others - it would be a major shock if, say, Sansa Stark was killed off at this point. But in terms of being guaranteed to survive The Winds of Winter, it means looking to Martin's original Game of Thrones plan. He wrote:
"Five central characters will make it through all three volumes, however, growing from children to adults and changing the world and themselves in the process... In a sense, my trilogy is almost a generational saga, telling the life stories of these five characters, three men and two women."
Much has changed since then - this was written in 1993, and at that point he planned for it to just be a trilogy. Other plot threads, such as a Jon Snow, Arya Stark, and Tyrion Lannister love triangle, have been discarded. Nonetheless, it still offers a good - and surely accurate - guide of who will survive The Winds of Winter, with Martin specifically naming the five key players.
5 Tyrion Lannister
Tyrion Lannister is one of George R.R. Martin's favorite A Song of Ice and Fire characters, so it's not too much of a surprise he will survive The Winds of Winter's story. Indeed, at San Diego Comic-Con back in 2014, Martin referred to Tyrion as the "easiest to write," and who he wants to be, though he identifies most with Sam [via The San Diego Union Tribune]. Martin has killed off plenty of other beloved characters, of course, but Tyrion's death wouldn't make much sense given his importance to the story's endgame. He's currently on a path to meet Daenerys Targaryen, and should be there when she attempts to take King's Landing.
Of course, that happened in Game of Thrones too, which resulted in Daenerys destroying King's Landing. That could well happen in the books, but Tyrion himself is a darker character there, so might even be encouraging rather than watching in horror. Going by The Winds of Winter's preview chapters, Tyrion arrives in Meereen early on, but will have to spend some time waiting for Daenerys to return. When she does, then attention can turn to Westeros.
Game of Thrones' ending saw Tyrion become Hand of the King once more, and that could well happen in A Dream of Spring as well. Some elements of his arc have remained from Martin's outline - allying more with the Starks, for instance, albeit without the Arya romance and Jon Snow rivalry - and while it will doubtless get more complicated, he should certainly be central to the remaining two books as one of the biggest, most popular point-of-view characters.
4 Daenerys Targaryen
Daenerys Targaryen was killed by Jon Snow in Game of Thrones' ending, and that itself shows she won't be dying in The Winds of Winter. Daenerys' arc in The Winds of Winter will involve her eventually returning to Meereen and ultimately making her way to Westeros, while also dealing with more of the scheming going on and the suitors arriving for her. When she does eventually arrive in Westeros, it will be quite different from the show. Game of Thrones cut Aegon Targaryen, the long-thought-dead son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell who is not only still alive (or so it's claimed), but looking to take the Iron Throne himself.
He is landing in Westeros at the outset of The Winds of Winter, so has a serious head start on Dany, and may even be on the Iron Throne when she arrives. If that is the case, then it may be how Daenerys burning King's Landing happens in the books. The Winds of Winter could have a second Dance of the Dragons with Daenerys and Aegon, the pair of them facing off for rule of Westeros, which could be set up by the end of the sixth book and then play out more in the seventh and final novel.
From there, then Daenerys helping to fight the Others - similar to Game of Thrones season 8 in some ways - should still happen, but could actually be more as a redemptive moment than it is setting up her final villain turn. Daenerys eventually dying makes sense, since she likely won't end up on the Iron Throne and is presumably doomed by destiny (Stannis Baratheon is a good Daenerys parallel), but that likely wouldn't happen until very late in A Dream of Spring rather than The Winds of Winter.
3 Arya Stark
Arya Stark's story in The Winds of Winter should have some similarities to Game of Thrones season 6. Based on The Winds of Winter's preview chapters, one of which has been released for Arya, she'll begin the book still in Braavos, going by the name of Mercy. That includes still having wolf dreams, and also encountering a familiar face from back in Westeros: Raff the Sweetling, the man who killed Lommy. Similar to Arya killing Meryn Trant, she will lure Raff to a private room and brutally kill him.
That will likely set up the rest of Arya's story in The Winds of Winter, which, like Game of Thrones, will be the push-and-pull between the Faceless Men of Braavos and reclaiming her Stark identity. There will be some differences, not least because Game of Thrones cut Lady Stoneheart, the reanimated form of Catelyn Stark in the books (whose body was discovered by Arya while warged into Nymeria). Lady Stoneheart is out of revenge on all Lannisters, Boltons, and Freys, meaning she, not Arya, will presumably kill Walder Frey.
Looking further ahead to A Dream of Spring, there will be some more notable differences to Game of Thrones. Assuming Arya and Sansa Stark are reunited at Winterfell, it will likely avoid the same story that tried to trick audiences into believing there was a conflict between the pair. And of course, one of Game of Thrones season 8's biggest moments was Arya killing the Night King, who does not exist in the books. Arya playing a role in The Long Night makes sense, but it cannot be the same. Finally, her reclaiming her identity and turning away from a path of vengeance does make sense as the ultimate end point for her arc.
2 Bran Stark
Will Bran Stark become King in the books? That's now one of the biggest questions since Game of Thrones' ending, which made the surprising decision to have Bran take over as Westeros' ruler. It was originally assumed - and claimed - that King Bran did directly come from Martin himself, which makes sense given how much of a left-field choice it seems otherwise. However, a later report stated Martin hadn't spoiled the books' Iron Throne winner, seemingly leaving it open to go in a different direction. Martin keeping his options wide open wouldn't be too surprising - his story tends to unfold as he writes, rather than being meticulously mapped out - but King Bran is a reasonable assumption.
Bran was, after all, the very first point-of-view character in A Game of Thrones, and fits with Martin's long-held fondness for "cripples, bastards, and broken things." There are also elements of Arthurian legend to his story - such as that of the Fisher King - which would support him becoming King, and it would be the ultimate payoff for the boy who so desperately wanted to become a Knight and was cruelly robbed of that chance. King Bran would likely be done better in the books, and that will come in part from The Winds of Winter.
The sixth A Song of Ice and Fire book will continue his training with the Three-Eyed Raven, but can give it far more depth and a greater explanation. Game of Thrones never really explained Bran's powers and role, but Martin's book can go further because of greater space and the point-of-view structure. Another event likely to happen in The Winds of Winter's Bran story is the death of Hodor and reveal of how he got his name, which was among the biggest spoilers Martin told Game of Thrones showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss. With all of that, and more to come in A Dream of Spring too, it can properly set up Bran becoming King.
1 Jon Snow
Jon Snow surviving until A Dream of Spring, the planned seventh and final installment in A Song of Ice and Fire, isn't much of a surprise given he's effectively the main character of the whole story. There is, however, a bit more of a catch with his survival: The Winds of Winter must resurrect Jon Snow first, after his death at the end of A Dance with Dragons. In Game of Thrones, Jon returned from his death pretty swiftly - although there was a gap between seasons, he wasn't even dead for two entire episodes. There'll likely be a more protracted period in the book before his resurrection, with most theorizing he'll live inside Ghost for a time.
Some of Jon Snow's The Winds of Winter story will have similarities to Game of Thrones season 6. Whether the Battle of the Bastards happens or not - which largely depends on whether Stannis defeats Ramsay Bolton in the book - it's still likely there will be some family reunions and the Starks re-taking Winterfell. Jon should also be a different character here though. Death and resurrection is supposed to change people, making them a little bit less than they were before; the aftermath of Jon Snow's death in Game of Thrones didn't explore that, but he could be quite a bit darker in The Winds of Winter.
With that, then Jon returning and then dying again in The Winds of Winter obviously wouldn't make much sense, and Martin has made his importance very clear. The secret child of Rhaegar Taryaryen and Lyanna Stark, Jon Snow will be crucial in the fight against the Others. Beyond that, it's likely that Jon Snow's Game of Thrones ending will happen in the books as well (perhaps without him being exiled to the Night's Watch), with him choosing to go back beyond the Wall. It's a fitting ending for him, but regardless he won't die (again) in The Winds of Winter.