Box Office Prediction: Fate of the Furious vs. The Circle

Box Office Forecast (Battle) - The Circle vs. Fate of the Furious

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Born in China's opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 28 - 30, 2017.

This weekend, The Circle opens in 3,163 locations and How to be a Latin Lover premieres in 1,118 theaters.

#1 - The Fate of the Furious

Coming in the top spot for the third weekend in a row should be The Fate of the Furious (read our review), which has done very well since it opened in mid-April. This proved to be a great spot for the tentpole, as it has faced virtually nonexistent competition in the early part of its run en route to $1 billion worldwide. It should be more of the same this week, since there is still little of note opening in theaters. Dom Toretto and his family will remain the top draw for casual viewers looking for an action fix ahead of the summer movie season starting in ernest. Fate's time at #1 is running out (the Guardians of the Galaxy are coming), but for now it has a clear path to the pole position.

Dwayne Johnson as Hobbs in Fate of the Furious

#2 - The Boss Baby

Our choice for second once again is The Boss Baby (read our review), which continues to monopolize the family demographic and has made $139.4 million to date domestically. The general rule of thumb is to never bet against an animated film, and though Boss Baby has been playing for a while, there's still not much else out there that can oppose it. Though business is starting to slow down a tad, it should have another successful weekend.

#3 - The Circle

Debuting in third should be the new tech-thriller The Circle (read our review), which stars Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega. The film boasts a star-studded cast who have all appeared in commercial hits in the past, but that may not be enough to help it in the long run. Reception for The Circle has been generally negative, with many pundits criticizing it for a lazy approach of what should have been an interesting premise. As a result of that word-of-mouth, it's arriving in theaters with very little fan fare and lacks the buzz a smaller project like this needs to make an impact. It may gain some traction as a counter-programming option, but with the summer blockbusters right around the corner, many viewers may opt to just save their dollars. Early projections are set at $10.5 million for the opening weekend.

The Circle (2017) - Emma Watson

#4 - Beauty and the Beast

Our pick for fourth is Beauty and the Beast (read our review), which came in third last week with $9.6 million. Disney's latest live-action remake has coasted through its run to become one of the biggest hits of all-time, staying at the top of the charts for nearly two months. Soon it will start to truly slide down, but Beauty is still one of the most high-profile movies playing, so it will keep drawing in sizable crowds.

#5 - How to be a Latin Lover

Rounding out the top five should be the new comedy How to be a Latin Lover, which stars Instructions Not Included actor Eugenio Derbez. The film is at a disadvantage because it's only playing in a little over 1,000 theaters and has earned mixed reviews, but like The Circle, it will be aiming to be a counter-programming choice for a specific niche. Awareness could be an issue, so this is probably the ceiling for it.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Fate of the Furious
  2. The Boss Baby
  3. Beauty and the Beast
  4. Unforgettable
  5. Born in China


  1. The Fate of the Furious
  2. The Boss Baby
  3. Beauty and the Beast
  4. Going in Style
  5. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Next Week: How high will Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 go

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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