Dune's domestic box office opening weekend may top Blade Runner 2049. After being delayed multiple times due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the highly-anticipated sci-fi epic from director Denis Villeneuve is set for release. Positioned as one of Warner Bros.' major titles in late 2021, there's a considerable amount of interest in Dune's performance. This film is based on just the first half of the novel, so it remains to be seen if a Dune sequel will officially get a green light. If Dune is a hit, WB will move forward with a followup.
Like all of WB's 2021 movies, Dune is debuting on HBO Max the same day as theaters, which is a variable to consider when trying to forecast the movie's box office prospects. Some WB films, like Godzilla vs. Kong, broke pandemic box office records despite being available on streaming. Others, such as The Suicide Squad, struggled at the multiplex despite being successful at home. Villeneuve is a widely-respected name among cinephiles, but he's never been the biggest commercial draw, as Blade Runner 2049 illustrated. Dune doesn't look like it will rewrite the history books, but it could beat out Blade Runner.
According to Deadline, Dune is projected to gross between $30-35 million domestically in its first three days. Globally, the movie is expected to earn over $70 million. The high end of the U.S. estimates would top Blade Runner 2049's opening weekend of $32.7 million, and even the lower end beats out Arrival's $24 million debut.
Recently, the box office has seen signs of life, with titles like Shang-Chi, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, and No Time to Die performing well (especially considering the circumstances). Shang-Chi was even able to top the pre-pandemic Labor Day weekend record when it opened. Compared to these blockbusters, Dune seems poised for a softer opening, which may not be surprising given Villeneuve's track record and the simultaneous streaming release. These estimates may explain why WB is emphasizing Dune's HBO Max numbers more than box office when it comes to determining the fate of the sequel. The studio is aware Dune may have limited commercial appeal (even before the pandemic), so the multiplex won't be the single deciding factor for Dune's future.
Even if Dune won't break any records, besting Blade Runner 2049 (which came out three years before the pandemic) would be an impressive accomplishment. There are a few factors working in its favor too. Early Dune reviews are very positive, praising the grand scope and vision of the project. Villeneuve was adamant Dune was made to be seen on the biggest of screens, so as more people become comfortable with returning to theaters, there will be some interest in watching Dune that way (especially IMAX screenings). Hopefully, Dune is able to find an audience in theaters and on streaming so the story can eventually be completed.
Source: Deadline
