Dune was always going to be a box office risk, given its massive budget and dense mythology, and now it's faced with the additional challenge of the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent worldwide lockdowns. Denis Villeneuve will soon debut his take on Frank Herbert's 1965 sci-fi epic, and if the trailer for Dune is anything to go by, this cinematic vision will be every bit as grand as the source material. The director has assembled an impressive array of stars - from Timothée Chalamet, who'll step into the lead role of Paul Atreides, to Josh Brolin, Zendaya, Jason Momoa, and Oscar Isaac in supporting roles.
Villeneuve will no doubt be hoping his strong cast and original spin on the novel will ensure Dune 2020 performs better than David Lynch's adaptation. The 1984 Dune not only bombed at the box office but was eviscerated by critics, who dismissed the $40 million tale of interplanetary conflict as little more than an inaccessible mess. Now, Villenueve has a chance to give Herbert's source material the big-screen adaptation it deserves, but that's no easy task with a novel that is often described as "unfilmable."
With numerous issues hanging over the December release of Dune – from the ongoing pandemic to a general audience that has a temperamental relationship with dense sci-fi epics – Warner Bros. has a potential box office disaster on its hands. Despite the promise of a faithful adaptation of Herbert's work and a suitably epic trailer, Dune will be a challenging sell for general audiences - and it absolutely needs general audience interest in order to succeed.
Dune Is A Box Office Risk Even In Normal Circumstances
Dune was always going to be a box office risk. Audiences have proven their willingness to show up for unfamiliar sci-fi projects, with Villenueve’s own Arrival bringing in respectable earnings. But whereas Arrival – which had a comparatively meagre budget – relied on the intriguing mystery surrounding its plot and had a female lead to broaden the film’s appeal, Dune remains a seriously dense sci-fi property with a multi-layered lore and lack of any real mainstream awareness. On top of that, the movie’s first trailer - though spectacular in scale and replete with stars - doesn’t do much to outline the confusing mythology of Dune. As if that wasn't enough to contend with, this is also the second attempt to adapt Herbert’s celebrated, yet somewhat arcane novel. Lynch's 1984 movie garnered a truly disastrous box office and critical performance, in part due to many of the same issues that face Villeneuve's film. In short, Dune was confusing to outsiders back in the early 80s and it remains that way now.
What’s more, Villenueve’s last movie essentially amounts to a giant warning sign when it comes to inaccessible sci-fi movies. Blade Runner 2049, though a critical success and genuinely stunning cinematic achievement, simply didn’t perform when it came to box office earnings. This was a film that arguably had more cultural cachet on which to fall back than Dune, with the original Blade Runner becoming enough of a cult classic to garner some mainstream recognition. Even with all that seemingly working in its favor and a bankable lead actor in Ryan Gosling, Blade Runner 2049 earned just $259 million on a budget of between $155-$185 million. The 2017 movie was seemingly a warning sign that general audiences simply aren’t interested in a somewhat unfamiliar, long, dense sci-fi movie no matter the budget or who’s in the starring role.
In truth, Blade Runner 2049 cost far too much to make, and as such was never realistically going to make the kind of profit Alcon and Warner Bros. needed. With a reported budget of close to $200 million, Dune seems to be running a similar risk to its director’s previous effort – even with its star-studded cast and the fact it will be split into two films, allowing it to hit the box office twice. Chalamet, though capable of bringing in a younger demographic, is also less bankable than Gosling, and Dune remains as mysterious to general audiences as the Blade Runner saga did prior to 2049's release. Whichever way it's viewed, Dune has a multitude of hurdles ahead.
Dune Is Even More Of A Box Office Risk In 2020
As if the aforementioned struggles facing Dune weren’t enough, 2020’s box office landscape is almost as inhospitable as the arid plains of the planet Arrakis itself. With COVID-19 shutting down movie theaters worldwide, the industry is taking as big a hit as any other during the ongoing pandemic, and it doesn’t look like things will improve any time soon. Despite some theaters opening their doors in recent weeks, there's been no sign of a return to pre-COVID business. As big-budget films from The Batman to No Time To Die see their release dates pushed back, audiences are seemingly hesitant to venture out to theaters amid the current crisis.
Warner Bros. was hoping to bring crowds back to the multiplex with Christopher Nolan’s highly-anticipated sci-fi action thriller Tenet. And while the film wasn’t the first to open in theaters since the pandemic began, it was certainly the biggest. Unfortunately, Tenet grossed an underwhelming $20.2 million domestically in its opening weekend – the highest debut since the outbreak began, but a serious disappointment for a movie with a $200 million budget. If Nolan couldn’t save movie theaters with a big-budget tentpole, Dune - with arguably a lesser-known director at the helm and comparatively smaller buzz behind it - could be a potential liability for Warner Bros. and Legendary.
As it stands, Dune is still set for a December 18 release, but Tenet’s performance seems to have spooked Warner Bros. The studio has officially delayed Wonder Woman 1984, moving it from its planned October release to a Christmas day launch – just one week after Dune is set to debut. But with NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci warning audiences not to return to the movie theater until a year after a COVID-19 vaccine is produced, it's likely Warner Bros. will further delay their big-budget projects, especially since the studio appears committed to eschewing the VOD option. Though Warner Bros. has yet to change Dune's December 18 release, that date seems tenuous considering the state of the movie industry in 2020. With all these considerations in mind, if the studio does decide to keep things as they are, Dune seems almost guaranteed to severely underperform at the box office.
Can Dune Avoid Being A Box Office Failure?
Things are looking fairly bleak for Dune at this point. With its labyrinthine lore, lack of established mainstream popularity, and the general wasteland that is the movie industry of 2020, there's arguably no worse a time for the film to launch. But that doesn't mean there's no hope. Dune has several things working in its favor. For one, its impressive array of diverse stars should offer some incentive for movie-goers to actually go to movies again, while Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya will likely pique the interest of moviegoers who would otherwise tune out at the first mention of sci-fi or Dune's sandworms. Gaining a PG-13 rating would also go a long way to making the movie as accessible as possible, especially considering how Blade Runner 2049 was somewhat hindered by its R-rating. A reasonable run-time wouldn't go amiss, either.
Even with all this in mind, there's no doubt Dune remains a big risk in terms of its box office prospects. Depending on the state of the movie theater industry come December, Dune outperforming Nolan's Tenet could conceivably be considered somewhat of a success for Villeneuve and Warner. That remains a realistic goal with the Christmas release date potentially bolstering ticket sales as the pandemic-weary masses throw caution to the wind and venture out for the festive season. However the movie fares at the box office, its performance will have to be judged relative to other pandemic releases – in which case, breaking even would be a major success for the film. But with all the issues facing the movie, and the industry itself experiencing one of the most challenging periods in its history, things really don't look good for Dune. If the December 18 release date holds, the prospect of Villeneuve's movie making a profit remains minimal at best.
