The U.S. box office may drop by 40 percent in 2020 due to coronavirus. As most people know by now, the spread of COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the entire world, and the entertainment industry isn't immune. In response to the global health crisis, numerous ongoing Hollywood productions have been put on hold and studios have reorganized their release slates. As it stands now, the moviegoing calendar has been wiped clear through the end of June, since it's unknown when it will be deemed safe for theaters to reopen. AMC's hope to resume business in mid-June seems very optimistic right now.
Back in late March, the U.S. box office recorded no revenue for the first time in history, and things will obviously stay that way until theaters are up and running again. Additionally, several of 2020's most-anticipated tentpoles have already claimed new release dates in 2021, meaning the original lineup for this year is a shell of its former self. This combination means cumulative box office figures for 2020 are going to be the worst figures the industry's seen in a long time.
Per THR, the "best-case scenario" for the 2020 domestic box office would be somewhere between $6.82 billion - $7.09 billion, which would be about 40 percent less than 2019's $11.4 billion. However, those numbers could be attainable only if theaters reopen after three months and attendance rates are back "to normal levels immediately." Should theaters struggle to draw normal-sized crowds in the coronavirus aftermath, the box office may hit just $6.36 billion - assuming, of course, theaters can open in a few months.
That latter scenario is something Hollywood should be prepared for. A study showed people will (understandably) be leery of going to large public gatherings like movie theaters post-pandemic; roughly 49 percent would wait "a few months" before returning to the multiplex. Even with the hope titles like Christopher Nolan's Tenet (which is still holding on to its July release date), Disney's Mulan, and DC's Wonder Woman 1984 will arrive in late summer, moviegoers may not feel it's worth risking their personal health to catch them on the big screen. As hungry people are for another communal theatrical experience, a majority justifiably want to feel safe before they start regularly going to the movies again.
Due to the fluid nature of the pandemic, it's also highly possible the few movies eyeing July and August premieres will have to move. Hollywood tentpoles are very dependent on the global marketplace in order to turn sizable profits, so studios likely won't release new films unless they're confident projects will be able to do robust business in territories like the U.S. and China. All studios can do is just wait and hope things improve sooner rather than later, or else these box office projections could end up being worse.
Source: THR