Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Insurgent‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of March 27 – 29, 2015.
This weekend, the comedy Get Hard opens in over 3,150 theaters and animated film Home debuts in 3,600 locations. In limited release, Serena and While We’re Young play on an unspecified number of screens.
#1 – Get Hard
Our choice for the top spot this week is the new comedy, Get Hard, starring Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart. Both actors remain solid box office draws, with Ferrell’s last headlining role (Anchorman 2) becoming one of his biggest commercial hits at $127.3 million. And even though Hart hasn’t been able to replicate the success of Ride Along ($134.9 million) in his last few outings, they still posted respectable numbers when it’s all said and done. Earlier this year, The Wedding Ringer opened with $20.6 million, and last year’s Think Like a Man Too debuted with $29.2 million.
From the look of it, Get Hard should be another solid offering from the two comedians. The film’s plot has the potential to deliver some big laughs, and the trailers have been successful in selling it as a fun time at the movies. Also, it’s been a while since there was a big mainstream comedy playing in theaters, which should lead to fans of the genre flocking to see some of its biggest names. Early tracking has Get Hard at $31 million for its first three days – and if it reaches that, it will be a big hit.
#2 – Insurgent
Look for last week’s champ, Insurgent (read our review), to fall to second in its second weekend. The young adult sequel opened with $52.2 million, which is slightly less than what predecessor Divergent made during its first three days last year ($54.6 million). Though both films are in the same ballpark financially, it is a sign that this series is having some issues attracting casual moviegoers. Critics have been hard on Insurgent, and that word-of-mouth will make it difficult for it to maintain strong legs. As a point of reference, Divergent‘s numbers fell by 53.1 percent during its second weekend, so it seems plausible Insurgent will have a similar drop-off. Unfortunately, that means a box office repeat is out of the question, even if the relative lack of competition leads to another solid weekend.
#3 – Home
Our pick for third this week is the new animated film Home, which may get up to the second spot depending on how far Insurgent falls. It’s been well-documented that the family feature landscape has been barren for quite some time, so the hope is that this movie from DreamWorks will give the box office a shot in the arm. Marketing has played up the connections with lucrative works such as How to Train Your Dragon ($217.5 million) and The Croods ($187.1 million) in an effort to sell audiences on the original “girl meets alien” tale. Both of those films managed to win their opening weekends, but Home may not be so lucky.
The early critical reception has been largely negative, with the consensus being that it’s a passable bit of entertainment, but far inferior to other works in the genre. Even if some families take their little ones to see Home, several others could opt to wait until a “better” animated film rolls around and spend their hard-earned money on that. As the old cliché in this space goes, you never bet against an animated movie – but with a projected $26 million opening (far below DreamWorks’ other films), it would be wise to wager against Home.
#4 – Cinderella
Our pick for fourth is Cinderella (read our review), which finished in second last week with $34.9 million, a 48.5 percent drop from its stellar opening. With the strong reviews and audience reception, the film has managed to hold well during its second time at bat; now, however, it’s playing amidst several high profile releases. It’s still an option for families, but Home is going to bite into that crowd, and Insurgent will continue to draw in the young girls that make up a solid chunk of Cinderella‘s audience. The film’s making more than enough to keep hanging around the top five, but it should see a decrease in business moving forward.
#5 – Run All Night
Rounding out the top five should be Run All Night (read our review), which surprisingly topped similar film The Gunman last week and came in third with $5 million. As that low figure would indicate, Liam Neeson’s latest action movie won’t be as commercially viable as some of the other flicks he’s starred in, but it’s still given action junkies something to watch as they bide their time for the major blockbusters.
Last Week’s Recap
Though we correctly predicted all the titles that would be in the top five, we were slightly off on the actual order. Our first two picks (Insurgent and Cinderella) were spot on, but past that got messy. Run All Night exceeded our expectations, coming in third when we said it’d be fifth. The Gunman, which was our third place prediction, opened in fourth place, and Kingsman: The Secret Service rounded out the top five when we said it’d be fourth.
Next Week: Furious 7, Get Hard, Insurgent, and more!
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