Disney+ is running into some issues with its original content, similar to mistakes Netflix has made before. The release of Disney+'s Stargirl helps to highlight some of the issues that they’re having in getting the streaming service to be not just a success, but a lasting one. Subscriber numbers for Disney+ are impressive, but it’s unclear how well it’ll do at changing the streaming game as a whole going forward.
The obvious comparison for Disney+ is Netflix, the dominant service in the streaming world. Disney+ is most likely to compete with Netflix in terms of controlling the conversation and the market. This should be relatively easy for Disney, with so many popular brands (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, Disney Animation, and so forth) already at their disposal, but they can't only rely on past releases to bolster subscriber numbers.
While Disney+ has been an overwhelming success for the Mouse House, the service is also making many of the same mistakes as Netflix, which doesn’t bode well for Disney's streaming ambitions. It’s far from an impossible task, but it’ll take some serious effort for Disney to overcome problems with their current Disney+ originals.
Netflix’s Mediocre Original Problem (& Why It Works For Them)
Netflix’s huge advantage when they got into streaming was that no distributors or production companies cared about streaming to start. While many hesitated to license their shows and movies to Netflix, once it got going, it seemed like Netflix could get anyone to sign on. With DVD sales falling and removing a big source of revenue, Netflix especially got a number of TV producers looking to them as an alternative source of revenue. This established Netflix as having a massive library of content that appealed to a wide audience. They had a bit of everything and their number of subscribers shot up because of that. Those subscribers showed other companies just how much money was in streaming, and they wanted to get in on it themselves. Competing streaming services popped up, causing Netflix to have to fight over a back catalog that previously seemed safe. As licensing costs went up, Netflix couldn't keep all their deals going, losing about half of its library between 2012 and 2016.
Netflix saw this coming, and the response was creating original content. Starting with House of Cards and Orange Is the New Black, they were going after prestige at first. This showed that Netflix could be a legitimate producer of great TV shows, not just glorified reruns of shows other companies made. After having established themselves, Netflix started to turn to quantity over quality in their originals sometime around 2016. Around the time that they ordered Fuller House to series, it became clear that they weren't just about top quality anymore. They started producing a lot more shows, many of them mediocre-to-bad - but the key is that it helped create an enormous back catalog. Following that strategy for the last few years and making deals that give them exclusive rights long-term or even in perpetuity, they're safe from having that back catalog shrink on them again over licensing disputes and increased competition.
Disney+ Doesn’t Have Enough Original Content
Disney+ has the back catalog problem solved. They have access to most of Disney's library, going back through most of the history of the company. All the Disney and Pixar animated movies are perfect for families with kids. The Marvel and Star Wars sections have strong appeal, bringing everything Disney has the rights to together in one place. Disney's problem is that the back catalog isn't enough. A large part of the appeal of streaming services now is in the original content, as people decide where to spend their money based on what has new shows and movies they haven't seen before and can't get elsewhere.
Disney+ has original content, but not a lot of it is a big deal. The Imagineering Story, High School Musical: The Musical: The Series, and The World According to Jeff Goldblum were okay hits, but didn’t make much of an impact. The Mandalorian did. Baby Yoda memes took over the world and the series itself was solidly received beyond just Star Wars fans. The problem is, there’s no more of The Mandalorian until October 2020. Even stretching it out with weekly releases, they only got two months, leaving a big gap until the next big thing. The final season of Star Wars: The Clone Wars is currently running, but that plays more to existing fans of a show that’s been running for a decade, not a way to bring in new subscribers.
New originals based on Disney’s other big brands aren’t exactly quick to pick up the slack. The first Marvel show, Falcon and the Winter Soldier, is set to release in August 2020. That’s still five months away, assuming that they even finish on time with all of the production setbacks. If everything makes the scheduled release dates, then between Falcon and the Winter Soldier in August, The Mandalorian in October, and WandaVision in December, Disney+ original content should be in a better place, especially with the weekly release schedule, but that’s months away and in doubt with the recent coronavirus outbreak.
Disney+ Can’t Support Netflix Original Quality Movies Like Stargirl
All of this leads back to Stargirl. It’s a big release, with Disney+ really pushing it (to great confusion, since DC Universe is also developing a project called Stargirl), but Stargirl is just mediocre. It’s only of real interest to someone who already knows the 20-year-old novel or is interested in the director or actors in the movie. There’s not a whole lot that the movie does to be different from any other coming-of-age story. On Netflix, Stargirl would have served an obvious purpose: it targets a specific audience and grows the library. People are much more in the habit of just browsing Netflix and watching something, especially with Netflix's suggestion algorithms. Someone who like young adult movies logs on, Netflix suggests this movie to them, and then they watch it. That could happen today or a couple of years from now, and it's all fine for Netflix's approach.
That's not working out well for Disney+ because Stargirl is the highest-profile original movie right now. They can put out originals with mixed reception if that’s not the only thing drawing viewers’ attention. The service launched with the live-action Lady and the Tramp remake and Noelle, both movies with mixed reviews. They got some attention, the people who liked those movies had fun, and importantly, everyone else forgot about them when the next episode of The Mandalorian came out. There aren’t any big originals on the way to do the same for Stargirl.
It's not helping that a lot of promising shows are running into trouble behind the scenes. There have been a number of changes and cancellations messing with upcoming Disney+ content. High Fidelity and Love, Victor have both moved to Hulu. The Lizzie McGuire revival has been delayed, with Hillary Duff and showrunner Terri Minsky wanting it to be moved to Hulu as well. A Tron series was secretly in the works until it was canceled, along with Book of Enchantment, Four Dads, and Muppets Live Another Day. This is draining the potential pool of promising Disney+ originals even further when that's the last thing they need right now.
What Disney+ Originals Need To Improve
This isn’t all doom and gloom for Disney+. The Mandalorian showed that they can create originals that own the pop culture conversation for good reasons. They just need to do it on a consistent basis, something that they’re struggling with right now. There are ways they can improve, particularly by having quality originals. If Stargirl was generally considered a good or great movie, praise for it would make this conversation completely different. Making good originals is the key to getting people to pay attention and pay for ongoing subscriptions. This is easy for Marvel and Star Wars, but it’s risky to build a service just on big franchises with big budgets. The smaller projects need a good reason for people to pay attention. Netflix is where they go because the service has something for everyone. What is Disney+ beyond just the Disney name selling the service?
Disney+ hasn't had that chance to really define itself yet. The closest they have to a stated vision is that they're "family-friendly", but it's not clear what that means. Love, Victor wasn't "family-friendly" enough and moved to Hulu, raising questions Disney hasn't answered of whether that was because of something specific in the show or just the fact that it's showcasing a gay romance. Between that and the fight over the Lizzie McGuire revival, it seems like Disney may be trying to sanitize what's on Disney+. Add in the number of cancellations/service hops for shows that were selling points when the service was announced, and it's not inspiring much confidence that they have a solid direction for the future.
These are hard problems to solve, as even Disney, the biggest entertainment company in the world, is running into them. In trying to compete with Netflix, Disney is coming out of the gate making some of the same questionable moves that Netflix is. While making a bunch of mediocre originals makes sense for Netflix, it’s the wrong move for Disney+ to make. They should be able to right the ship with the help of the originals coming later this year, but for now, mediocre original releases reflect much worse on Disney+ than they do on Netflix.