Disney Will Struggle to Repeat 2019's Box Office Success

Even before Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker hits theaters, Disney’s 2019 box office take has been extraordinary. Led by the record-setting Avengers: Endgame and strong performances by The Lion King (2019) and Toy Story 4, the total worldwide grosses for Disney's 2019 releases nears $10 billion. This box office success is part of a meteoric rise seen by the Mouse House: since 2014, the year before Disney released Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the studio has doubled its market share (15.59% to 31.96%) and could triple its worldwide grosses (from $3.7 billion in 2014).

From 2015-2018 total worldwide grosses have hovered in the $6.1-$7.1 billion range, but does Disney’s 2020 slate has the potential to repeat 2019's eleven-figure box office returns, or will Disney see a significant (over $2 billion) drop in its box office for the first time since Bob Iger spearheaded the acquisitions of Marvel, Pixar, and Lucasfilm?

The staples of Disney’s past decade of success have been Star Wars, the MCU, and Pixar. The original animation division has seen break-out hits like Frozen and Frozen II, and the live-action remakes of animated classics have been strong with phenomena like Beauty and the Beast (2017), The Lion King (2019), and Aladdin (2019), all grossing over a billion dollars, and an occasional disappointment like this year’s Dumbo ($347 million worldwide) or Solo: A Star Wars Story ($392,924,807). But 2011 was the last year that a film that wasn’t part of the Star Wars-MCU-Pixar wings of the studio claimed the top spot on Disney’s chart, and in 2019, over half of Disney's box office revenues came from the three MCU or Pixar releases.

So when we’re looking for potential breakout hits in 2020, these franchises are a good place to start. Disney doesn’t have a Star Wars film in development slated for 2020. In the MCU, two entries will hit theaters: Black Widow and The Eternals are May and November releases respectively, and while these both have potential, not even the most committed MCU fan suspects that they’ll match the nearly $4 billion that Avengers: Endgame and Captain Marvel combined to earn in 2019. Pixar’s 2020 offerings are Onward and Soul, and though both boast a talented voice cast, including Tom Holland, Chris Pratt, Jamie Foxx, and Tina Fey, Pixar originals usually gross less than Pixar sequels. The highest-grossing Pixar original was Inside Out; its $857 million falls short of Toy Story 4’s billion-dollar worldwide gross. In these three major arms of Disney’s box office dominance, 2020’s offerings are likely to fall short of 2019’s.

The updated live-action remake of Mulan looks interesting, and it may gross on the upper end of the live-action remake spectrum, buoyed by expected high returns in the Chinese box office, but it remains to be seen whether it will eclipse The Lion King (2019)’s $1.6 billion. Also, betting on Dwayne Johnson’s international appeal is always wise, but can Jungle Cruise make up the shortfall in other areas? If not, then Artemis Fowl, Garfield (2020), The One and Only Ivan, The Empty Man, and Raya and the Last Dragon will have to pick up the slack to reach 2019’s total. It’s also true that Disney will see returns from its Fox releases, and Free Guy expects to be a major player in the summer box office, but we're comparing films produced and released under the Disney banner in 2019 and 2020.

In the end, Disney is not hurting. It will continue to see growth in its streaming service, Disney+, and some of these films will be huge events and weekend winners at the box office. But the prospect of repeating another eleven-figure return seems unlikely in 2020. Over $10 billion is a mark no studio has ever achieved, and though records are made to be broken, this one might have to wait at least another year.

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