Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Carrie's opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 25th - October 27th, 2013.
This weekend, both crime drama The Counselor and comedy Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa open in 3,000 theaters. Blue is the Warmest Color sees an extremely limited release of 4 theaters.
#1 - Gravity
It’ll be close, but we’re picking Gravity (read our review) to come out on top for the fourth consecutive week. Alfonso Cuarón’s Oscar contender grossed over $30 million last week and it has currently made $171.9 million domestically. Showing no signs of slowing down, it’s clear that moviegoers are still flocking to theaters to see the sci-fi thriller and good buzz from critics and audiences means Gravity should keep going strong.
#2 - The Counselor
Our choice for the second spot is the new crime drama, The Counselor. While director Ridley Scott is a mixed bag in terms of box office numbers, his latest film should get a boost thanks to a recognizable ensemble cast. The marketing campaign has highlighted the actors, which include Brad Pitt and rising star Michael Fassbender. The former has proven that he is still a reliable box office draw thanks to the surprising success of World War Z ($202.3 million) and the latter has made a name for himself with turns in X-Men: First Class ($146.4 million) and Prometheus ($126.4 million). TV spots have also used Cormac McCarthy – author of No Country for Old Men – as a selling point. The Coen brothers’ film adaptation of that novel grossed a respectable $74.2 million in 2007.
Early tracking numbers for The Counselor are low, but we feel that Scott has a large enough following and the cast is popular enough to entice moviegoers to check this one out. Despite not having any pre-release Oscar buzz like Gravity or Captain Phillips, this crime drama should perform well on its own.
#3 - Captain Phillips
Coming in third should be Captain Phillips (read our review). Paul Greengrass’ latest has held very well, grossing $16.4 million during its second weekend (good enough for second place). With reviews praising the film’s action and Tom Hanks’ award-worthy performance, we feel Captain Phillips will continue to perform strongly as Oscar season heats up.
#4 - Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
This week’s other major release, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, is our choice for the fourth spot. The previous films in the Jackass series have done solid business at the box office (2010’s Jackass 3-D grossed over $50 million during its opening weekend), but this film does not feature the whole team – just star Johnny Knoxville. Also, Jackass 3D did not face strong competition when it first opened, and this film won’t have that luxury.
While the Jackass fan base is large enough for this to perform well, there are concerns about Bad Grandpa failing to connect with moviegoers since social media tracking is low. There’s some question as to how enthused people are about this spin-off. The movie should do fine in its niche audience, but it remains to be seen if it can crack the mainstream with so many other options available.
#5 - Carrie
Rounding out the top five should be Carrie (read our review). The horror remake grossed $16.1 million last weekend, which was only good enough for third place. While it has a monopoly on the horror market, it’s clear that the film won’t be a breakout smash a la The Conjuring and we don’t expect it to have strong legs at the domestic box office.
#10 - Prisoners
That's it for this week's breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it's time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- The Counselor - 3,000+ theaters
- Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa - 3,000 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- Blue is the Warmest Color - 4 theaters
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Carrie opening): Sal reports that three people finished with scores of 11, but Josh D had the tiebreaker and is the official winner.
For the record, here are our picks from last week - along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 - Gravity (3)
- #2 - Carrie (1)
- #3 - Captain Phillips (1)
- #4 - Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (1)
- #5 - Escape Plan (1)
- #10 - Rush
- Final Score: 7 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)