The current worldwide coronavirus pandemic will be very familiar to fans of 2011 socio-political thriller Contagion, but how much did Steven Soderbergh's prescient film get right or wrong? While Contagion accurately predicted a worldwide virus outbreak and the speed at which it can travel, there are elements that the - at the time, purely fictional - movie either got incorrect or failed to predict. COVID-19 - commonly referred to as the coronavirus - is a flu-like virus that has spread rapidly across the globe since its discovery in November 2019. The coronavirus has infected over 156,000 people in over 130 countries, as countries have closed their borders and Hollywood ceased production on everything from Jurassic World 3 to Stranger Things season 4.
In 2011, Contagion was released, directed by Steven Soderbergh (Ocean's 11) with a screenplay by Scott Z. Burns (The Report). The thriller revolves around a worldwide outbreak of a deadly virus, as seen through the eyes of a myriad of characters, from Matt Damon as a father struggling to protect his daughter to the CDC director Dr. Ellis Cheever (Laurence Fishburne) struggling to stay one step ahead of the outbreak. Contagion opened to generally favorable reviews, currently sitting with an 85% Fresh critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
As soon as the coronavirus spread worldwide, people saw similarities with Contagion. Even at the time of filming, Damon and Soderbergh commented on the movie as being a matter of "not if, but when." Contagion recently saw an uptick in people streaming the movie, apparently looking for similarities with the coronavirus outbreak. Are audiences looking for clues on how to deal with such an event, or escapism via a fictional virus which is so much worse than COVID-19? What did Contagion get right and wrong about coronavirus, nine years before it happened?
Right: Asian Origin
First, the coronavirus originated in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. In Contagion, the virus that is eventually labelled MEV-1 stems from contact between Beth Emhoff (Gwyneth Paltrow) and a local chef in Hong Kong. According to the South China Morning Post, this strain of Coronavirus could have originated in Wuhan as early as November 2019, an origin the Chinese government seemingly went to great lengths to disguise, not confirming human-to-human infection until mid-January 2020. In Contagion, WHO epidemiologist Dr. Leonora Orantes (Marion Cotillard) meets similar resistance from the Chinese government in trying to resolve the point of origin within Hong Kong.
Wrong: Extremely Deadly
Hollywood movies are full of extremely deadly viruses, and Contagion is no exception. Beth Emhoff is among the first to die; a mere 48 hours after contracting the virus she succumbs to seizures in a hospital. MEV-1 is shown to be highly contagious and highly fatal, which in reality is unusual for viruses. In Contagion, the movie's scientists predict that MEV-1 will affect 1 in 12 people with a mortality rate of 25-30% mortality rate.
In the real world, coronavirus is easily transmissible, but actually has a comparatively low mortality rate of 3-4%. The most at-risk appear to be the elderly and those with respiratory (or other) underlying health issues, as opposed to the populace of Contagion where MEV-1 ultimately did not discriminate. Of course, on a global scale, a 3-4% mortality rate is no joke.
Right: Animal Origins
In Contagion, Dr. Ally Hextall (Jennifer Ehle) says, "Somewhere in the world, the wrong pig met up with the wrong bat." She describes the viral sequencing of the MEV-1, finding evidence of both pig and bat sequences, which prove that the virus had animal origins. A similar description could apply to COVID-19. Coronaviruses generally are common in bats, among other animals, and while the exact origins are unknown, scientists suspect that early transmission to humans occurred via infected seafood.
Wrong: The Young are the First to Die
In Contagion, the first people to be severely affected by the virus - and ultimately die - are Beth Emhoff, a young Eastern European model, and a server in a Hong Kong casino who appears to be in his early 20s. In reality, this has not been the case, as younger people have a greater chance of experiencing this coronavirus as more of a seasonal flu. Really, it's the older number of our population as well as those with underlying health concerns who will sadly be more susceptible to a fatal outcome from this particular contagion.
Right: Transmitted by Touch
In a series of frustratingly frightening scenes, people infected by the virus in Contagion are shown to be relentlessly touching things, the camera hovering on the spot where their grimy, sweaty fingers were, leaving traces of MEV-1 for the next hapless person to accidentally touch. Even the initial transmission of the virus, revealed at the end of Contagion, occurs when the chef preparing the tainted pig for consumption shakes Beth's hands in Hong Kong.
In real life, the coronavirus is likewise transmitted through "fomites," any surface that can hold a pathogen. Tables, handrails, any number of day-to-day objects can hold droplets that contain COVID-19. It's for this very reason that social distancing during the outbreak is so important. Even movie theaters are slashing their attendance capacity by 50%.
Right: False Prophets
Every movie needs a villain, and Contagion is no different; paranoid blogger Alan Kumweide (Jude Law) seeks to misinform the general public, falsifying symptoms of MEV-1 and a subsequent snake oil remedy in the form of Forsythia. His readership jumps to over 10 million unique visitors, as well as a substantial payday from the company producing Forsythia. In a crowd-pleasing scene, he's finally stopped and arrested by the government for conspiracy and securities fraud.
As recently as March 13, 2020, notorious conspiracy blogger Alex Jones has been told to stop hawking alleged coronavirus-killing toothpaste via his radio show and website. The New York Times recently reported on Jones being issued a cease-and-desist by the New York State attorney general. Jones, via his lawyer, denies all the claims.
Right: Vaccine Development
At the end of Contagion, as the virus continues to spread, the CDC's Dr. Hextall tests the vaccine for MEV-1 on herself, reminiscent of Jonas Salk's experiments with the polio vaccine. Fortunately, the vaccine is successful, and a lottery determines who will be the first to be vaccinated. However, by the film's conclusion over 26 million people die worldwide. Thankfully, though the crisis has had devastating effects, the coronavirus has yet to wreak the same level of human cost, and scientists continue to work on developing an effective and safe treatment.