Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of November 24 – 26, 2017.

This weekend, Coco plays in 3,987 theaters, The Man Who Invented Christmas debuts in 626 locations, and Roman J. Israel, Esq. expands to 1,669 locations.

#1 – Coco

Coming in first should be Coco (read our review), the latest film from Pixar. The animation powerhouse has long been a commercial juggernaut, frequently clinching the top spot on the box office charts whenever a their new project opens. A rare exception was The Good Dinosaur in 2015 (which finished second to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2), but that hardly started a downward spiral for the studio. Finding Dory dominated the multiplex last summer, grossing $486.2 million in its domestic run, and though Cars 3 failed to make much traction with $152.9 in the United States, it still won its debut weekend with $53.6 million. There are few iron-clad commercial locks, but Pixar is one of them.

Coco is already poised to be their latest hit, premiering on Wednesday, November 22 and grossing $22.1 million in the U.S. so far. The film has the benefit of receiving excellent reviews, with many praising it for its emotional story and breathtaking technical merits. This is also the perfect time to come out with a new family film, as schools are currently on Thanksgiving break. In fact, nine of the top 10 highest-grossing Turkey Day weekends are Disney releases, and that tradition should continue in 2017 with a surefire Best Animated Feature Oscar contender. Projections have Coco earning more than $70 million for the five-day frame, with $51 million of that coming Friday-Sunday.

coco pixar singing guitar Box Office Prediction: Coco vs. Justice League

#2 – Justice League

We believe last week’s champ, Justice League (read our review) will fall to second in its second weekend. The latest installment in the DC Extended Universe got off to a rock start, earning “only” $93.8 million in its first three days. Those figures were well below the estimates heading into the weekend, a byproduct of the mixed word-of-mouth present in the professional reviews. With the ensemble piece opening that low (relatively speaking, for a superhero film), it doesn’t appear the demand for Justice League is very high. While the film has done well on the daily charts following the weekend, it should still come up short of topping Coco. Pixar is riding the positive buzz, and bested Justice League on Fandango going into Thanksgiving.

#3 – Wonder

Our pick for third is Wonder (read our review), which surprised many by coming in second last weekend with $27.5 million. The adaptation of the book has been the beneficiary of strong word-of-mouth, making this an appealing option for families looking for a change-of-pace from the slew of Hollywood tentpoles. Though the arrival of Coco should take away business from Wonder‘s target demographic, this heartfelt drama should be able to draw in sizable crowds over the Thanksgiving window.

OWen Wilson and Julia Roberts in Wonder Box Office Prediction: Coco vs. Justice League

#4 – Thor: Ragnarok

We think Thor: Ragnarok (read our review) will finish in fourth. The one-two punch of Justice League and Coco should prove to be too great of a hit for the MCU’s latest blockbuster to withstand, as both of those movies (on-paper, at least) are four-quadrant tentpoles designed for mainstream audiences. The God of Thunder can’t feel too bad about the way things have turned out, grossing $260.6 million domestically so far, but business is going to decline a bit now.

#5 – Daddy’s Home 2

Rounding out the top five should be Daddy’s Home 2, which came in fourth last week with $14.4 million. The comedy sequel continues to appeal to its niche, timing its release perfectly with the kickoff of the holiday season. For at least one more week, it should be able to stick around.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks

  • Justice League
  • Thor: Ragnarok
  • Wonder
  • Murder on the Orient Express
  • Daddy’s Home 2

Actuals

  • Justice League
  • Wonder
  • Thor: Ragnarok
  • Daddy’s Home 2
  • Murder on the Orient Express

Next Week: Justice League, Coco, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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