Despite being number two at the box office for the weekend of February 24, Universal’s Cocaine Bear movie opened to a shockingly impressive box office performance, making it the weekend’s real winner. Cocaine Bear is Universal’s second hit horror-comedy of 2023, following in the successful box office footsteps of January’s M3GAN. Not only is Cocaine Bear’s impressive opening performance a good sign for the February box office and the prospects of a sequel, but it also points out problem areas for Disney as it rivals Universal’s continued accomplishments in theaters.
The 11 gory character deaths weren’t the only things being killed by Cocaine Bear’s rampage, as the movie also killed it at its opening weekend box office. Elizabeth Banks’ campy slasher horror-comedy debuted alongside Jesus Revolution as the biggest new release of February 24, but it was still facing heavy competition from Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which opened to $104 million the previous weekend. Although Ant-Man 3 dropped significantly in its second weekend, the MCU film was the number one movie at the box office, with Cocaine Bear cementing a close second place. However, Ant-Man 3 wasn’t the real winner of the weekend’s box office despite bringing in more money – that title goes to Cocaine Bear.
Cocaine Bear’s Impressive Opening Weekend Box Office Performance Explained
Cocaine Bear earned approximately $23 million at the domestic box office on its opening weekend, which is higher than the initial projections that topped its debut earnings at about $20 million. Considering the brutal horror-comedy film was going up against an MCU film in its second weekend, the fact that Cocaine Bear's box office numbers are higher than expected is especially impressive. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania only brought in $32.2 million at the domestic box office this past weekend after initially earning $104 million, which is the biggest drop second-weekend drop ever recorded by an MCU movie.
While the massive drop in Ant-Man 3’s second-weekend box office performance can largely be explained by the film’s quality and poor reviews, the overwhelming hype around Cocaine Bear's wild scenes and the film’s mostly positive reviews also play a role in the shocking turn of events. Cocaine Bear’s $23 million debut also establishes it as the second-highest opening at the February 2023 box office, falling behind Ant-Man 3 by over $80 million but leading Jesus Revolution by nearly $10 million. Although Cocaine Bear still didn’t earn as much in its opening weekend as M3GAN, which debuted at $30.4 million, its success lies in the fact that it held its own against the second weekend of a Marvel superhero movie.
How Cocaine Bear Nearly Overtook Ant-Man 3 – Is Disney In Trouble?
At the 2022 box office, new MCU movies from Disney held onto the number one spot for at least two weeks by significant margins, which is certainly not the case for February 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Additionally, the MCU movies Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever were respectively dethroned by critically-acclaimed box office hits Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, and Avatar: The Way of Water, whereas Ant-Man 3 was nearly overtaken by the mid-budget horror-comedy Cocaine Bear.
While Disney won the 2022 box office, Cocaine Bear suggests Universal could be 2023's champion. If Disney is relying on the MCU for its biggest 2023 box office hits, Ant-Man 3’s performance isn’t a good sign, indicating the franchise isn’t the untouchable powerhouse it has been. While Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will inevitably be a hit due to its beloved nature and trilogy-ending status, it may problematically be the only major MCU box office success of 2023. As such, Disney would only be counting on The Little Mermaid and Indiana Jones 5 to maintain its competition against other studios like Universal, which is worrying when they’re putting out niche films that can shockingly rival the supposedly Goliath MCU.
Cocaine Bear’s Box Office Highlights Disney’s Big Weakness
Similar to how Scream (2022) finally dethroned Disney's Spider-Man: No Way Home at the box office in January 2022, an R-rated horror movie is what nearly overtook the MCU’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in February 2023. While superhero movies have been established as a reliably successful genre at the box office, horror movies have held this reputation for far longer. Of course, horror is the biggest genre that the studio hasn't tapped into, and Disney's continued losses to horror movies are further highlighting this weakness.
Disney enjoys maintaining its family-friendly outlook, but a lack of horror and R-rated adult comedies, both of which have done well at the 2023 box office, reveals where it loses its box office domination. Now that Disney owns the Alien and Predator franchises, the potential for its horror success is growing, but it’s likely that the studio will lean further into the sci-fi aspects of these film series than the horror tropes. Still, horror is a massive market that Disney has yet to tap into, which leaves more room for Universal and Paramount to unexpectedly succeed with films like Cocaine Bear.
Cocaine Bear Continues Universal’s Incredible Horror-Comedy Box Office Success
Cocaine Bear’s box office success is also great news for Universal’s horror-comedy streak, particularly that of the PG-13 film M3GAN. Horror-comedy movies, especially very satirical ones, have performed well both critically and commercially in the pandemic era, with the more outrageous films like M3GAN and Cocaine Bear having significant power at the box office. Cocaine Bear follows up on a similarly bizarre and somewhat niche premise as M3GAN that uses its camp to elevate both the horror and comedy elements, which isn’t a basis expected to nearly overtake an MCU film at the box office.
Universal is taking risks with these films and continues to have big payouts, indicating a slew of ridiculous horror-comedies will follow. Thankfully, Cocaine Bear isn’t the end of Universal’s 2023 campy horror-comedy streak, as Renfield is premiering in April. With Nicolas Cage as Dracula, Renfield has already accumulated plenty of hype as the beloved actor takes on one of the most iconic and daring characters of all time, which could lead to a bigger box office performance than both Cocaine Bear and M3GAN. Should Renfield follow suit by exceeding commercial expectations, Universal will have the freedom and confidence to take on far more zany and unthinkable horror-comedies in the future.
What Cocaine Bear's Box Office Performance Means For A Sequel
Cocaine Bear’s opening box office is extremely optimistic for its genre’s future, but the film’s theatrical staying power is what will truly determine whether Cocaine Bear 2 happens. On a budget of over $30 million, Elizabeth Banks’ Cocaine Bear will likely need over $100 million for Universal to greenlight a sequel or spinoff. Considering February films that open at around $20 million typically finish at approximately $65 million, Cocaine Bear needs better subsequent weekends to reach this goal. A Cocaine Bear sequel is still possible, but isn't guaranteed simply based on the opening weekend box office success.