Marvel Studios' next movie could be one of their biggest as Captain Marvel is projected to have a $160 million opening weekend domestically. The twenty-first entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is set to be their first female led movie, and Brie Larson could lead the film to giant box office success before she leads the MCU as a whole.
Although Carol Danvers has yet to appear in any MCU film, she has already been positioned as a savior for the entire universe. The Avengers: Infinity War post-credits scene featured Nick Fury paging Captain Marvel during his final moments, and her emblem appearing on the pager was meant to be a glimmer of hope in an otherwise dour conclusion. This has given Captain Marvel a larger importance in the overall landscape of the MCU, on top of the film's cultural significance. The excitement is clearly building, as pre-sale tickets on Fandango are top 3 in MCU history in the first 24 hours - and the first box office projections reflect the high level of interest.
Box Office Pro shared their long range projections for early March and revealed that their estimate for Captain Marvel's opening weekend domestically currently sits at $160 million. Their full opening weekend range is $140M at the low end, but with a high of $180M. With a $160M opening weekend domestically, the service projects the film to have strong legs leading into the summer and gross $465M domestically overall, which could then put it in contention to do $1 billion worldwide.
If Captain Marvel is able to open anywhere in this range, it will go down as a giant hit for Marvel Studios. There have only been eleven comic book movies to open above $140M domestically, and Marvel Studios is responsible for seven of those movies. Only eight of those films opened above $160M (six being MCU titles) and all four above $180M are MCU hits. Beyond the MCU, though, Captain Marvel would be in the conversation for the best opening weekend ever in March. Disney currently holds the record thanks to the live-action Beauty and the Beast remake opening to $174M in 2017. The highest opening weekend for a comic book movie in March is Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice's $166M. If the next MCU film does manage to hit these high projections, it could go down in the record books.
However, these are just projections right now and there are still events that could happen that make this high of an opening less likely. The critical response to Captain Marvel will play a major role in seeing how well the film does at the box office. Hardcore fans may have already bought their tickets, but positive reviews is what can help drive more causal moviegoers into the theaters on March 8. That said, one factor that could work in the film's favor is that Captain Marvel hits theaters on International Women's Day. And, there is always the chance that the movie will end with a post-credits scene setting up Avengers: Endgame.
Whether Captain Marvel hits these box office numbers or not remains to be seen, but it appears to be well on its way to financial success. Official tracking numbers won't be available for a few more weeks, and those are usually more conservative, so don't be surprised if they are lower than this current projection. But, as we approach Captain Marvel's release, fans and Disney will be keeping an eye on how the box office expectations change.
Source: Box Office Pro
- Captain Marvel (2019) release date: Mar 08, 2019
- The Avengers 4 / Avengers: Endgame (2019) release date: Apr 26, 2019
- Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) release date: Jul 02, 2019