Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Transcendence's opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 25 - 27, 2014.
This weekend, action movie Brick Mansions opens in 2,400 theaters, romantic comedy The Other Woman debuts in 3,000 locations, and horror film The Quiet Ones sees a release of 2,000 theaters. On the limited release front, Locke debuts in an unspecified number of locations.
#1 - Captain America: The Winter Soldier
We expect Captain America: The Winter Soldier (read our review) to remain in the top spot for a fourth consecutive week. Grossing $25.5 million in its third week, the latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe has shown that it is still the one to beat and has taken full advantage of inferior competition. With one more week to go before The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opens in the States and none of this week’s wide releases projected to open high, Captain America could keep his place at the top of the charts.
#2 - The Other Woman
Our choice for second is the new comedy The Other Woman. While star Cameron Diaz is not exactly a box office draw, (she was in the $100 million hit Bad Teacher in 2011 however) she’s part of a recognizable ensemble that also features Leslie Mann and Kate Upton. All of these leads are untested, but the big names could encourage viewers to check this one out. Also, there’s a chance it emerges as a solid counter-programming option since it is the only major option that’s targeting the female demographic.
#3 - Rio 2
Coming in third should be Rio 2 (read our review). The animated sequel was in a tight fight for second last week, coming up just short with $22.1 million. Even though its numbers continue to fall, it still has a monopoly on the family market, which will allow it to keep posting solid numbers for at least a few more weeks.
#4 - Heaven is for Real
After underestimating the religious drama Heaven is for Real last week, we’re picking it to finish fourth in its second weekend. The film got a boost by opening over the Easter holiday, and while we can’t say for sure how strong its legs will be, it opened high enough that even a fairly steep drop won’t be enough to prevent it from finishing in the top five again.
#5 - Brick Mansions
Rounding out the top five should be Brick Mansions. Despite starring Fast and Furious staple Paul Walker, the film is arriving in theaters with little buzz. Marketing for the film has been visible, with numerous TV spots highlighting the movie’s high-octane action and impressive stunt work. However, with early projections indicating a $6 million opening weekend, we doubt this has much widespread appeal.
#10 - Divergent
We do not expect the horror film The Quiet Ones to finish in the top five. Even though it’s receiving a substantial nationwide release of 2,000 theaters, it is not expected to be a big earner. The movie has received very little marketing, so awareness will not be high and it lacks the star power necessary to go from niche genre outing to crossover smash.
That's it for this week's breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it's time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Brick Mansions - 2,400 theaters
- The Other Woman - 3,000 theaters
- The Quiet Ones - 2,000 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- Locke - unspecified
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Transcendence's opening): Sal reports that Bman was the winner with a score of 9 points.
For the record, here are our picks from last week - along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 - Rio 2 (0)
- #2 - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (1)
- #3 - Transcendence (1)
- #4 - A Haunted House 2 (1)
- #5 - Oculus (0)
- #10 - The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Final Score: 3 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)