Box Office Prediction: 'Insidious Chapter 2' vs. 'Riddick'

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Riddick's opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of September 13th - September 15th, 2013.

This weekend, the horror sequel Insidious Chapter 2 opens in 2,900 theaters and the mob comedy The Family opens in 2,800 theaters. Enough Said debuts in an unspecified limited release.


#1 - Insidious Chapter 2

Our pick for the top spot this weekend is Insidious Chapter 2. The first film in this blossoming horror franchise was released to a modest success at the domestic box office in 2011 – taking in over $54 million domestically. The original’s $13.2 million opening weekend was good enough for only third place, but the sequel is expected to far surpass that total.

Insidious Chapter 2 director James Wan already has one horror blockbuster to his name this year thanks to the success of The Conjuring ($135.1 million) and the genre itself has proven it's still a viable commodity with other movies like The Purge and Mama having healthy theatrical runs. With audience interest in horror high and a lack of competition, this sequel should perform well.

'Insidious Chapter 2'

#2 - Riddick

Look for last week’s champ Riddick (read our review) to fall to second. During its first three days, the sci-fi sequel grossed over $19 million. While that total is decent, it failed to match the opening numbers of 2004’s The Chronicles of Riddick, which indicates that this franchise is not in demand. Star Vin Diesel has a large following, but it is unlikely the third outing for Richard B. Riddick will have strong legs.

#3 - The Family

Our choice for third place is the new comedy The Family. The cast features big names such as Robert De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, giving this film some much-needed boost in star power. The marketing campaign has also highlighted director Luc Besson (Taken) as a selling point, which could draw some curious moviegoers. While the premise – a mob family trying to adjust to life in witness protection – could be entertaining, audience interest in this film is low and it is not expected to have a large impact at the box office.

#4 - The Butler

Coming in at number four should be Lee Daniels’ The Butler (read our review). The historical drama has performed very well over the past month, grossing over $92 million in the States. With audience word-of-mouth strong and fellow awards contenders still a few weeks away from hitting theaters, The Butler is showing no signs of slowing down and should continue to draw in audiences.

Robin Williams and Forest Whitaker in The Butler (Review)

#5 - Instructions Not Included

Our pick for fifth place is the surprise indie hit Instructions Not Included. Despite being released in only 717 theaters, the foreign language comedy has somehow grossed over $20 million (at the time of this writing), finishing in the top five in the previous two weekends. As the film continues to generate positive buzz, it should keep bringing people in.

#10 - Blue Jasmine

Our number ten tiebreaker is Woody Allen’s latest, Blue Jasmine. The film has grossed $25.1 million so far and finished last weekend in ninth place. Star Cate Blanchett’s performance has also received some Oscar buzz, which plays into this movie’s favor.

That's it for this week's breakdown.


Screen Rant Underground Podcast

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it's time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Insidious Chapter 2 - 2,900 theaters
  • The Family - 2,800 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • Enough Said - unspecified

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Riddick opening): Sal reports that five people had scores of 12, but thanks to correctly predicting the tiebreaker, Josh D is the official winner.

For the record, here are our picks from last week - along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 - Riddick (3)
  • #2 - Lee Daniels' The Butler (3)
  • #3 - One Direction: This Is Us (0)
  • #4 - We're the Millers (3)
  • #5 - Planes (3)
  • #10 - The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones
  • Final Score: 12 points


Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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