Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 20 – 22, 2017.

This weekend, Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween opens in 2,388 theaters, Geostorm plays in 3,246 locations, Only the Brave debuts in 2,577 theaters, Same Kind of Different As Me plays in 1,362 locations, and The Snowman debuts in 1,812 theaters.

#1 – Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween

Coming in first should be holiday sequel Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween, which is the followup to last year’s comedy hit. Tyler Perry’s famous character has been a reliable commercial draw over the years, never breaking records, but still posting respectable numbers. The first Madea Halloween opened to the tune of $28.5 million in 2016, en route to a $73.2 million domestic total. It became the second-highest grossing installment of the series, meaning audiences like seeing Perry’s humorous scares up on the big screen.

It should be more of the same this time around. Though Boo 2 is hardly a critical darling, these films don’t need widespread acclaim to draw in large crowds. The Madea brand has a built-in viewership that will always be there on opening weekend to see what Perry has up his sleeves. While there are some horror movies still playing for those looking for something seasonally appropriate, Madea is geared to be more funny and entertaining than legitimately frightening, so moviegoers looking for a light-hearted option will surely find this one appealing. Projections have it pegged for $19 million in its first three days, which would be below its predecessor, but still a respectable start.

Tyler Perry Madea Halloween axe Box Office Prediction: Geostorm vs. Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween

#2 – Happy Death Day

Last week’s champ, Happy Death Day (read our review), should fall to second in its second weekend. The latest hit from Blumhouse won its opening frame with an impressive $26 million, capitalizing on genre fans hungry for scares and positive word-of-mouth. With Halloween right around the corner, there should still be considerable interest in this one as viewers are looking to be scared at the movies.

#3 – Geostorm

Opening in third should be Geostorm, a new action/thriller vehicle starring Gerard Butler. The leading man is best known for his turn in 300 ($210.6 million), but he’s hardly been a box office lock in the decade since. Many of his live-action movies have largely been non-starters commercially, with the exception of Olympus Has Fallen ($98.9 million). He’s a recognizable name, but he only reaches a specific demographic, making it difficult for Geostorm to break out of its niche. In line with that, the reviews for this one have been porous, with critics blasting everything from its visuals to characterization. It feels like a movie from a bygone era – one that doesn’t have an audience any more. As a result, Geostorm isn’t expected to do all that much in its first three days, with estimates indicating $10.5 million is in the cards.

Gerard Butler in Geostorm movie 2017 Box Office Prediction: Geostorm vs. Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween

#4 – Blade Runner 2049

Our pick for fourth is Blade Runner 2049 (read our review), which came in second last week with $15.4 million. Despite a slew of positive reviews, the sci-fi sequel was never able to reach an expansive audience, suffering the same fate as its predecessor. Still, with few genre pictures currently playing in theaters, it will likely hang around for at least another week.

#5 – Only the Brave

Rounding out the top five should be Only the Brave (read our review), which is based on the true story of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. The film has earned much praise from critics thanks to its respectful portrayal of its subjects, and those in the mood for a straightforward, classical Hollywood drama that packs an emotional punch will be right there to see it. While Only the Brave lacks the awards buzz that projects of this nature sometimes need to break out, it should prove to be a nice counter-programming option and do solid business. Projections say it’ll earn $9 million in its opening weekend.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks

  • Happy Death Day
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • The Foreigner
  • The Mountain Between Us
  • IT

Actuals

  • Happy Death Day
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • The Foreigner
  • IT
  • The Mountain Between Us

Next Week: Suburbicon, Jigsaw, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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