Box Office Prediction - The Boss Baby vs. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Ghost in the Shell's opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 7 - 9, 2017.

This weekend, Smurfs: The Lost Village opens in 3,610 theaters, Going in Style debuts in 3,061 locations, and The Case for Christ premieres in 1,175 theaters.

#1 - The Boss Baby

We believe last week's champ The Boss Baby (read our review) will repeat in the top spot during its second weekend. The latest from DreamWorks Animation pulled out the unlikely upset and defeated juggernaut Beauty and the Beast, grossing $50.1 million in its first three days. While it's true it will receive direct competition for its target demographic in the form of Smurfs: The Lost Village, that film isn't tracking high enough to unseat Boss Baby from the pole position (more on this in a minute). Given Boss Baby has proven to be an audience favorite and debuted higher than originally anticipated, it should have a somewhat easy road ahead, even though word-of-mouth was mixed.

The Boss Baby - Alec Baldwin

#2 - Beauty and the Beast

Disney's Beauty and the Beast remake (read our review) should come in second. Though the box office hit was knocked down the charts last week, it's still doing very well for itself nearly a month into its domestic run, already totaling $404.1 million so far. At this point, there isn't much left to be said about its performance. The Mouse House did an excellent job finding a soft spot in the release schedule for it, and Beauty has delivered on all fronts.

#3 - Smurfs: The Lost Village

The newest family film Smurfs: The Lost Village (read our review) is our choice for third. A reboot of the classic property, this new take follows two live-action/animation hybrids that saw varying degrees of success. The 2011 original was a modest hit with $142.6 million domestically, but 2013's sequel sputtered in the States by earning just $71 million. Sony decided to hit the rest button in an effort to introduce the franchise to a new generation of audiences, but it doesn't look like the studio is going to have a reliable cash cow as a result.

Boss Baby doing better than expected certainly hurts Smurfs' prospects, as the demand for a kid-friendly flick will now be lower. Also, going the full animated route did not help the Smurfs series' poor critical reception, as many reviews write it off as a mediocre children's film that doesn't have much to offer beyond the surface. If Boss Baby had faltered, then Lost Village would be in better shape, but as it stands, it isn't likely to make a legitimate challenge for the top spots. Projections are set at a meager $14.5 million, which is lower than the disappointing Smurfs 2. That's not what Sony is hoping for.

#4 - Going in Style

Opening in fourth should be the new comedy Going in Style (read our review), which stars Academy Award winners Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, and Alan Arkin as a trio of senior citizens who decide to rob a bank to take back their money. The film is obviously targeted at a quite older demographic than is typical in Hollywood, but tapping into an underserved market doesn't look to aid its chances much. Thanks to mostly negative reviews, Going in Style doesn't have much going for it, other than seeing its star-studded cast interact. Appeal for this one is going to be rather limited, and it's arriving in theaters with very little fan fare. Estimates suggest a $9.5 million haul for the weekend.

#5 - Ghost in the Shell

Rounding out the top five should be Ghost in the Shell (read our review), which only managed a third-place debut last week with $18.6 million domestically. The anime adaptation is now a proper box office bomb, poised to cost the studios more than $60 million in losses. There were a variety of factors that prevented the movie from becoming a breakout hit, and with the demand low, Ghost in the Shell isn't going to turn it around.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Beauty and the Beast
  2. The Boss Baby
  3. Ghost in the Shell
  4. Power Rangers
  5. Kong: Skull Island


  1. The Boss Baby
  2. Beauty and the Beast
  3. Ghost in the Shell
  4. Power Rangers
  5. Kong: Skull Island

Next Week: How high can The Fate of the Furious go?

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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