Box Office Prediction: Blade Runner 2049 vs. Kingsman 2

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 6 - 8, 2017.

This weekend, Blade Runner 2049 opens in 4,058 locations, The Mountain Between Us plays in 3,088 theaters, and My Little Pony: The Movie debuts in 2,258 theaters.

#1 - Blade Runner 2049

Our pick for first this week is Blade Runner 2049 (read our review), the long-awaited sequel to Ridley Scott's 1982 sci-fi classic, Blade Runner. Though the original film was viewed as a critical and commercial disappointment when it first opened, its reputation has greatly improved in the three decades since, and is now regarded as one of the greatest films ever made. Blade Runner is a property with a large following within the pop culture zeitgeist, and many are interested to see the story continue. 2049 also gets a boost thanks to director Denis Villeneuve's involvement (Arrival made $100.5 million last year) and its A-list cast led by living legend Harrison Ford and Ryan Gosling. The latter is coming off the major success of La La Land ($151.1 million), so he's proven he can headline a film.

All of these factors point to Blade Runner 2049 having a very strong start and possibly breaking the all-time October opening weekend record. The brand recognizability is always a great thing to have, but what really gives 2049 the edge is its sterling word-of-mouth, with some people praising the sequel as a masterpiece. Even with IT dominating the marketplace over the last month, acclaimed genre pictures have been hard to come by recently, so there should be high demand to see something like 2049 on the big screen. Projections have it pegged for $54 million in its first three days, which easily eclipses the unadjusted domestic total of the original.

#2 - The Mountain Between Us

Our choice for second is The Mountain Between Us (read our review), the new romance/survival film starring Idris Elba and Kate Winslet. The movie is based on the novel of the same name, so Fox is targeting fans of the book and hoping they show up in full force to see the story brought to life. While Mountain Between Us has received a mixed response so far, it does have a couple of things working in its favor. Though neither of its leads are guaranteed box office locks, they're both reliably likable and a pair of big names to draw in more casual viewers. There's also a possibility the film emerges as a counter-programming option for older moviegoers looking for something on a date night. It's not going to break through its niche demographic, but it should post respectable numbers on its own. Estimates are about $9 million in its first three days.

#3 - My Little Pony: The Movie

Coming in third should be My Little Pony: The Movie, a new animated film based on the well-known toy franchise that has generated billions of dollars in sales. The project is certainly coming out at the right time, as the only other family film playing wide - Ninjago - was a non-starter commercially. There's a void in the marketplace for something geared towards children, and My Little Pony could fill that well. Projections suggest an opening weekend of $11 million, but we think it could be a little lower than that. Awareness could be an issue, as it's entering theaters with little fan fare (especially when compared to other animated titles). Reviews have also been decent, not great, which could prevent the film from reaching a wider audience than its core demographic.

My Little Pony The Movie poster

#4 - IT

We believe IT (read our review) will come in fourth. There isn't much left to say about the Stephen King adaptation, which steamrolled the competition throughout September and is undisputedly one of 2017's greatest hits. Now, however, it should start to slide down the charts. The arrival of the anticipated Blade Runner 2049 will take away some business, especially since the initial hype surrounding IT has died down somewhat.

#5 - Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Rounding out the top five should be Kingsman: The Golden Circle (read our review), which repeated last weekend by the slimmest of margins. Though it is the challenger in our headline, it's not going to pose much of a threat to Blade Runner. Interest in the spy sequel has diminished, as evidenced by its 56.6 percent drop in its second weekend. Due to the mixed critical reception, Golden Circle isn't in high demand anymore, and it's time at the top is over.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks

  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle
  • IT
  • American Made
  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie
  • Flatliners


  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle
  • IT
  • American Made
  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie
  • Flatliners

Next Week: The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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