Box Office Prediction: Blade Runner 2049 vs. Happy Death Day

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 13 - 15, 2017.

This weekend, Happy Death Day plays in 3,149 theaters, The Foreigner opens in 2,515 locations, Professor Marston and the Wonder Women debuts in 1,229 theaters, and Marshall opens in 821 locations.

#1 - Happy Death Day

Our pick for first is Happy Death Day (read our review), which is the latest horror film from Blumhouse Productions. The studio has been a staple of the genre for years, and reached new heights earlier this year when both Split and Get Out became blockbuster successes. They've certainly cracked a formula for efficiently producing crowd-pleasing fare that has plenty of commercial appeal, and their newest effort should be more of the same. The premise, which imagines the classic Groundhog Day scenario with a slasher flick aspect, is a key selling point, and Universal is smartly releasing this on a Friday the 13th - when audiences will be on the prowl for scares.

Fortunately, the film has received mostly positive reviews, with some saying Happy Death Day makes for a fun time at the movies (even if the final product isn't the most memorable). That will help its commercial prospects, as will the fact that it should have a monopoly on the horror crowd. While the demand for scares may not be incredibly in the aftermath of ITHappy Death Day gives fans of the genre something new to check out after enough time has passed. Projections have it pegged for $20 million in its first three days.

#2 - Blade Runner 2049

Look for last week's champ, Blade Runner 2049 (read our review), to fall to second in its second weekend. Despite widespread critical praise, the sci-fi sequel from director Denis Villeneuve struggled at the box office in its debut, performing well below expectations and earning just $32.7 million in its first three days. While the original Blade Runner's reputation has greatly improved since it was released in 1982, the cult following apparently isn't large enough to turn the property into a commercial force. The hope is that due to limited competition and excellent word-of-mouth, 2049 has strong legs and can make back its money over time, but it's going to have an uphill climb to draw in the sizable crowds it needs.

#3 - The Foreigner

Our choice for third is The Foreigner, a new action film starring living legend Jackie Chan. Directed by Casino Royale's Martin Campbell, the project promises to be a rendition of a tried and true genre formula with Chan playing a man seeking revenge. Though Chan has never been a box office lock on his own, his starring role in the Rush Hour series means he's a recognizable name for casual viewers, and he's beloved by action fans for his extensive résumé. This is obviously playing to a very specific niche as opposed to something more mainstream, and it should find success with its target demographic. Estimates suggest an opening weekend in the range of $10.5 million, which sounds about right for a middle-of-the-road action title.

#4 - The Mountain Between Us

Our choice for fourth is The Mountain Between Us (read our review), which came in second last weekend with $10.5 million. Due to its mostly negative critical reception, the film wasn't able to break out with audiences, though it did find some traction as a counter-programming option for older moviegoers in the mood for a romance film. Business should start to go down now, but it'll stick around for at least another week.

#5 - IT

Rounding out the top five should be IT (read our review), which earned $9.9 million last weekend. After dominating the marketplace for the better part of a month, the hype surrounding the Stephen King adaptation has cooled off, and with the arrival of Happy Death Day, it'll lose some of its target audience.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • The Mountain Between Us
  • My Little Pony: The Movie
  • IT
  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle


  • Blade Runner 2049
  • The Mountain Between Us
  • IT
  • My Little Pony: The Movie
  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Next Week: Geostorm, Only the Brave, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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