Why Black Widow's Release Date Is Likely To Be Delayed (Again)

There's a good chance that Marvel Studios will delay Black Widow again due to the current status of the box office. Heading into 2020, the Marvel Cinematic Universe was set to begin a new era. The Infinity Saga concluded with Avengers: Endgame becoming the highest-grossing movie of all-time and Spider-Man: Far From Home became the biggest solo Spidey film ever. Despite Scarlett Johansson's Black Widow dying during the events of the former, she is still slated to finally get a solo film of her own.

Marvel Studios' plan has long been to use Black Widow to kick off Phase 4 of the MCU, but that has become more challenging than they ever could've predicted. The coronavirus pandemic shut down theaters across the world in March and eventually led to Black Widow losing its May 2020 release date. Marvel was forced to push the film to November 2020, a move that resulted in almost the entirety of Phase 4 shifting in some way. The six-month delay allowed for hope that Black Widow will be able to be released in theaters at this point as the first MCU Phase 4 movie. But, even that has recently started to look less likely.

Even though the majority of theaters are open, social distancing measures and the current state of the coronavirus pandemic have led to a tepid response. The fallout of recent events has only just begun. Many are now turning their eyes back to Black Widow to see what Disney and Marvel will do with the Phase 4 blockbuster. So far, they've stuck to a November 2020 release date for Black Widow in theaters, but all signs point to Johansson's solo movie having to wait even longer to debut.

Tenet Was A Test For Blockbuster Releases - And It Failed

After months of being shut down, theaters finally opened back up a few weeks ago to prepare for the release of Tenet. Christopher Nolan's time-manipulative movie was one of 2020's most anticipated blockbusters at the start of the year, and he pushed for the film to help bring theaters back. Nolan's interest in preserving the theater experience is commendable and Warner Bros. obliged his requests as best they could. While it was pushed back a few weeks, Tenet was the first big movie to hit theaters during the pandemic and it hasn't done well.

The circumstances of Tenet's release are unprecedented, so the movie's box office performance wasn't going to be what anyone involved had hoped. But, it is still fair to say that what business Tenet has done is underwhelming. The movie had a decent opening internationally but the domestic box office has been a different story. Depending on which box office numbers one believes, the movie opened as high as $20 million or as low as $10M. The second weekend wasn't much better, as it made less than $7M. In total, Tenet has made over $200M worldwide but less than $30M domestically.

With the response to Tenet, it is abundantly clear that most people aren't ready to go back to theaters just yet. Big markets like New York and California are still closed too, so the huge opening weekends that blockbusters count on just aren't possible, especially with theaters limiting capacity each showing. So, if Tenet's performance is representative of the type of performance fellow blockbusters will have, this would put Black Widow in a position to fail as well.

There Are Rumors Of Another Black Widow Delay

It wasn't too long after Tenet's box office receipts started to roll in that rumors heated up again that Marvel Studios could delay Black Widow. The possibility of another delay hitting the solo film is something that fans have been dreading, but now there might be movement to make it happen. A recent report said there are "whispers" within Hollywood that Disney and Marvel will push back the movie again. So far, Disney has yet to make such an announcement officially, but it does seem likely.

Discussions about a Black Widow delay raise one primary question first and foremost: where it will move to? Keeping the movie in theaters, delaying Black Widow's release, and not further shaking up Phase 4 do not work hand in hand. The most logical landing spot for the movie now is February 2021, where Eternals is currently scheduled to debut (and where Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was slated before). But, moving Black Widow here means delaying the rest of Phase 4 too, which has pros and cons for the studios.

Wonder Woman 1984 Has Already Been Delayed

The changing landscape for the 2020 movie release schedule could also have an impact on Black Widow. As far as Disney and Marvel are concerned, the biggest domino to fall recently was Warner Bros.' decision to delay Wonder Woman 1984 again. The movie has shifted release dates a lot but was scheduled to finally arrive in October - and ahead of Black Widow. After WB saw Tenet's performance, they've pushed Wonder Woman 1984 back to December. This currently leaves Black Widow as the next big release and in a vulnerable position to be another big box office disappointment if theaters don't improve.

There are already signs that Tenet's release will hurt theaters in the immediate future and they could close again if COVID-19 cases spike during flu season. The delay for Wonder Woman 1984 also means that the biggest movie hitting theaters between Tenet and Black Widow is fellow Disney release Death on the Nile. Even though the first film did well at the box office domestically and internationally, it doesn't carry the same high budget as Black Widow or Wonder Woman 1984, giving it a better chance to turn a profit - even in this climate.

Could Black Widow Get A Disney+ Release?

Although the common thought is that Black Widow will receive a theatrical release, there is still a chance that it could be moved to Disney+. Due to the pandemic, Disney has so far used their streaming service and new movies as a way to generate some revenue. The results for Mulan aren't confirmed, but Disney is reportedly happy with how it has performed. If that is true of a movie that a budget north of $200 million, then Black Widow can't be ruled out.

The MCU is about as guaranteed as franchises come in terms of the expectation that a new movie will make lots of money. Given the hunger for new Marvel content, the audience for Black Widow - even with a similar Premier Access price tag as Mulan had on its Disney+ release - would likely draw big numbers for Disney+. Disney would lose a movie that should make hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office if it is released when theaters are closer to normal, but the chance to get real money now might outweigh the potential for more later on. Plus, it's important to remember that Disney keeps 100% (or close to it) of any dollar spent to buy Black Widow on Disney+ instead of getting roughly half of the box office dollars.

The chances of Black Widow coming to Disney+ could also be tied to Disney and Marvel wanting to finally move the MCU forward. It has been on hold for months and will need to move forward at some point. Even though the backlog of content isn't growing since productions have been paused, that is starting to change. Both The Falcon and The Winter Soldier and WandaVision still have work to do too before they'll be ready for their respective Disney+ launches, even with the original 2020 MCU release schedule completely changed. So, if Disney+ is going to get Marvel content soon, Black Widow is the best shot. The decision to delay the film again or move it to Disney+ is one Disney and Marvel will likely make sooner than later, but releasing Black Widow in theaters on November 2020 doesn't appear to be the best option.

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