The National Association of Theater Owners (NATO) believe that Disney+ is responsible for Black Widow's box office collapse due to their decision to stream the film on their platform immediately upon its release. Black Widow hit both theaters and Disney+ on July 9th, making it the first MCU film of Phase 4, as well as the very first MCU film to test dual release in theaters and on Disney+. Meanwhile, it was also the first MCU release following the Covid-19 pandemic, which shut down many theaters and film productions during 2020.
Black Widow started off strong, garnering $80 million in theatrical revenue and scoring the biggest box office opening of the pandemic. However, after its record-breaking opening, Black Widow dropped 67% at the box office during its second weekend. The sharp drop made it the largest second-weekend box office decline of any MCU film. In some ways, the drop was expected, as Black Widow was Disney's way of testing the waters with Disney+ and the coronavirus pandemic. However, it was still anticipated to bring crowds back to the theaters, and the theaters are, understandably, concerned about this box office drop and the reasons behind it.
As reported by THR, NATO criticized Disney+ for releasing Black Widow on their streaming service on its opening weekend, attributing that decision to the film's box office collapse. NATO explained that while Disney may count its streaming revenue as a success, it is damaging the theater business that is still greatly struggling and in need of recovery after the pandemic. They blamed Disney+ for Black Widow's "disappointing performance" and stated that simultaneous releases should be left behind with the pandemic era. NATO also brought up the issue of piracy on Disney+, questioning just how much revenue will be lost from it. Check out their statement below:
Despite assertions that this pandemic-era improvised release strategy was a success for Disney and the simultaneous release model, it demonstrates that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders in every cycle of the movie’s life. The many questions raised by Disney’s limited release of streaming data opening weekend are being rapidly answered by Black Widow’s disappointing and anomalous performance. The most important answer is that simultaneous release is a pandemic-era artifact that should be left to history with the pandemic itself. One can assume the family-oriented Disney+ household is larger. How much? How much password sharing is there among Disney+ subscribers? Combined with the lost theatrical revenue and forgone traditional PVOD revenue, the answer to these questions will show that simultaneous release costs Disney money in revenue per viewer over the life of the film. Piracy no doubt further affected Black Widow’s performance, and will affect its future performance in international markets where it has yet to open. Pristine digital copies became available within minutes of release on Disney+. Black Widow was the most torrented movie for the week ending July 12.
While Black Widow's box office performance is consistent with the lower pandemic performances, it cannot be denied that Disney+ did hurt its theatrical release. For the first time, many were able to watch a much anticipated MCU film on its release date from the comfort of their home. While the film did cost $30 on Disney+, it may not be such a steep cost in the face of password sharing. Password sharing is widespread on streaming services, meaning that one individual can buy the film for $30 and share it with countless other family members and friends who can then watch the film at no cost. Meanwhile, as NATO pointed out, a pristine digital copy of Black Widow was available within minutes of its release, making it an easy target for piracy.
Overall, it is difficult to say if the box office collapse can be attributed to Disney+ or to the pandemic; it is likely a mixture of both. However, if Black Widow had released solely theatrically in the midst of continued pandemic concerns, would that have hurt its performance even more? Theaters are facing unprecedented times due to the pandemic, and it will take time to adjust and recover. However, as streaming services gain more popularity they do need to consider the impact they have theatrically and how that shift in revenue affects stakeholders in the business. Disney+ has indicated it will return to traditional theatrical releases when the pandemic subsides, but the issues that NATO raised extend beyond Black Widow's release and need to be considered as Disney continues growing their streaming services.
Source: THR