Update: Black Panther crossed $1 billion in its 26th day of release.

Black Panther has the fifth highest-grossing opening weekend of all-time, so does that mean it will eventually cross $1 billion? Yeah, probably. Ever since tickets went on sale, Black Panther has narrowly beat the competition in virtually every category and at the domestic box office. First, it snagged the record for most tickets presold for a superhero movie. Then, it surpassed Captain America: Civil War in both Thursday night previews and opening day box office grosses. And then it landed the eighth highest-grossing opening day of all-time.

Considering that Black Panther is beating Civil War, despite the 2016 film starring all but two Avengers - not to mention the fact that it introduced both Black Panther and Spider-Man into the MCU, in addition to being based on one of the most iconic Marvel comic stories in recent years - its success shouldn't be undervalued. This is a movie that wasn't expected to top $90 million in its opening weekend but is now breaking records... in February, no less. With all of that in mind, there's a high chance that Black Panther can eventually hit $1 billion, but it won't be easy.

This Page: What Black Panther's Opening Weekend Numbers Say About Its Final Total

Black Panther's Opening Numbers Are Huge

Captain America: Civil War concept art - Black Panther vs. Captain America

Black Panther debuted with an estimated $192 million at the domestic box office over the course of its 3-day opening weekend, with an additional $169 million coming in from overseas markets. In total, Black Panther has grossed $361 million globally so far. It goes without saying that the North American box office is immensely important to Black Panther's overall success. But in order to hit $1 billion, it needs to fire on all cylinders to hit that coveted number, and it looks like that's exactly what it's doing.

Right off the bat, Black Panther is already off to a strong start to hit $1 billion based on its opening weekend gross alone. Only four movies have ever opened to over $150 million and NOT crossed the billion-dollar threshold: Spider-Man 3, The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. Both Hunger Games films relied heavily on their domestic audiences because foreign moviegoers weren't interested in Katniss' story, while Spider-Man 3 and Batman V Superman missed the mark because both films weren't well-received by viewers (and they didn't merit repeat viewings on a large scale). Given that Black Panther's reception has been overwhelmingly positive thus far, and it's far exceeded the $150 million opening mark, it's statistically likely to hit $1 billion... eventually.

Related: Black Panther Teases Marvel's Next Captain America?

Interestingly, out of 18 MCU movies, only four have crossed $1 billion: The Avengers ($1.518 billion), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($1.405 billion), Iron Man 3 ($1.214 billion), and Captain America: Civil War ($1.153 billion). Each movie opened to over $150 million (as did Black Panther), but they also all hit at least $400 million domestically, and then were boosted towards the billion-dollar threshold by their performance overseas, particularly in China.

Black Panther has yet to release in the country, and while it's unclear how the movie will perform in that market, so far, the film seems to be narrowly beating all but The Avengers at the domestic box office, thus ensuring that it will hit $1 billion eventually. Black Panther's $192 million opening exceeds both Civil War ($179 million) and Age of Ultron ($191 million). However, its global opening of $361 million is far below both films: Civil War opened to $379 million, while Age of Ultron pulled in $392 million. So, it seems that audiences overseas may not be as interested in T'Challa's story as they were in, say, Iron Man's (Robert Downey Jr. starred in each MCU film that grossed over $1 billion). Because of that, it would be ideal to compare Black Panther's trajectory to 2017's Beauty and the Beast.

Whereas most Marvel films experience sharp second weekend drop-offs and rely heavily on international markets, Disney's Beauty and the Beast dropped only 48.5% in its second weekend. Plus, since it ended up grossing more than $500 million domestically, its North American viewers are what pushed the film past $1 billion. As long as Black Panther experiences a similar, sub-50% drop-off in weekend #2, then there's a strong chance that it will continue to do well in North America, which will be enough to propel it high enough to the point that China (and most other markets) won't matter as much as they would for other Marvel films. But what does Black Panther need to pull that off?

What Does Black Panther Need To Make $1 Billion?

Again, what matters is how much Black Panther's box office drops off in its second weekend, as well as if starts to taper off quickly, like most superhero films, or if it has a slow burn along the lines of more family-friendly films, such as the recent Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (which just crossed $900 million globally). A movie can still hit the coveted billion-dollar mark without hitting big numbers over its opening weekend, but it all depends on how strong the film's word of mouth is and if there's substantial interest in repeat viewings. That's what separated Jumanji from the rest of the pack.

Jumanji opened to only $36 million domestically, yet it's climbed all the way up to become Sony's second highest-grossing release ever. It did that because audiences were overjoyed with their moviegoing experience, and they started telling their family and friends to see the film over all the competition. That led to repeat viewings and, in some cases, multiple viewings. While that's something that's difficult to do, Black Panther seems to exhibit the same level of enthusiasm in its audience. So far, audience reactions are great (Black Panther has an A+ CinemaScore); coupling that with the fact that moviegoers are already going back for seconds (as evidenced on Twitter), it stands to reason that Black Panther will continue to post big numbers domestically for a long while.

Related: Black Panther: Is Killmonger Really Marvel's Best Villain?

In addition to all the aforementioned factors, what Black Panther also has going for it is the lack of genuine competition. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is no longer playing in major theaters, and there isn't another film that can remotely compete with the MCU film until Ava DuVernay's A Wrinkle in Time hits theaters on March 9 - in three weeks. By releasing in a relatively uncrowded time of the year, cinemas around the world can continue to show several dozen screenings of Black Panther daily, which will undoubtedly help the film add millions to its revenue.

What Box Office Multiplier Does Black Panther Need for $1 Billion?

Looking back at the numbers, Black Panther doesn't need a high multiplier in order to hit certain marks to continue on its trajectory towards $1 billion. With a 3-day opening of $192 million, it's already surpassed most of the competition; it only needs a 2.6 multiplier to even hit $500 million at the U.S. box office. And with a 3-day opening worldwide total of $361 million, Black Panther only needs a 2.77 multiplier to hit $1 billion overall. Considering that most Marvel films fall in the mid-2.0s for their multiplier, and only outliers such as Guardians of the Galaxy really hit over 3.0, there's an enormously high chance that Black Panther will become the second Marvel film ever to cross $500 million domestically and the fourth to hit $1 billion worldwide.

Even though Black Panther is a Marvel film, it's actually best to compare the movie to 2017's Wonder Woman. Like Black Panther, DC's Wonder Woman also had a major cultural impact, which is what helped boost the film past $800 million worldwide. While Wonder Woman didn't cross $1 billion, its multiple was one of the highest amongst its peers, which means audiences can expect a similar opening weekend multiplier for Black Panther. Wonder Woman had a multiplier above 3.7, and that sent it past $400 million at home. Since Black Panther has a similar cultural force behind it, it can hit a multiple above 3.0. And by doing so, Black Panther would easily blast past $500 million domestically, thus putting it on the level of Beauty and the Beast as well as 2008's The Dark Knight.

Related: Black Panther Made One Big Change To Comic Book T'Challa

Depending on how well Black Panther does internationally in its second and third weekends, the film may either follow Civil War and have a relatively sharp domestic drop-off - therefore, relying on international moviegoers to boost its box office haul - or it may continue to post high numbers at home. If it's the latter, Black Panther has the potential to pull in The Dark Knight-level numbers, perhaps even breaking the $500 million mark at the U.S. box office. If so, it can rake in hefty sums domestically and not worry so much about overseas markets, because, again, it's unclear how well Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and the rest of the world will respond to the film - and those are among Marvel's top markets.

In the end, Black Panther needs to hit certain milestones in order to be on the proper trajectory towards the billion-dollar mark. And so far, it seems to be right on track. Based on the numbers that have released thus far, as well as all the external factors, as long as Black Panther continues to do well internationally, it can hit anywhere between $1.1 and $1.2 billion globally. If not, then it will need to perform exceptionally well domestically. In that case, there's a chance that it could still end up at just over $1 billion. But we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

More: Every Record Black Panther Has Broken

Key Release Dates