Better Call Saul season 6 is only two episodes old, and already a major Lalo Salamanca theory might've been ruthlessly debunked. With Better Call Saul's main timeline set before Breaking Bad, major question marks hang over the fates of characters we didn't see alongside Walter White and Jesse Pinkman - the likes of Kim Wexler, Nacho Varga and Lalo Salamanca. The case of Lalo is especially curious, since in Breaking Bad season 2, Jimmy asks Walt and Jesse, "Lalo didn't send you?" as if the character is still alive. But two seasons later, Gus Fring taunts Hector by reminding him, "The Salamanca name dies with you," clearly indicating Lalo is dead by that point.
In Better Call Saul's season 5 finale, Gus Fring organized a professional assassination on Lalo Salamanca, and although his target escaped, Fring was led to believe the operation went as planned. Consequently, a Better Call Saul theory emerged suggesting Lalo is alive throughout Breaking Bad, and Gus only says what he does in season 4 because he still erroneously believes the hit was successful. That would also explain Jimmy's line from season 2, since he'd likely know the truth. Better Call Saul season 6's trailer appeared to support this theory by showing Lalo with a body double - another tool that could allow him to fool Gus.
Better Call Saul season 6 - the first two episodes of which landed simultaneously on AMC - has more or less debunked that theory already. Episode 1 ("Wine & Roses") sees Lalo Salamanca kill a man who looks vaguely like him (after a shave), pinching the dead body to act as his double. This proves enough to convince the New Mexico authorities of Lalo's demise and, initially, Gus Fring believes it too. At this point, things are looking good for the aforementioned theory. Ever the pragmatist, however, Gus isn't satisfied without Lalo's bullet-ridden body literally on the floor in front of him (and even if it were, he'd probably check for a pulse). Seeking conclusive answers, Gus visits Hector Salamanca, whose blatant absence of grief proves Lalo is still very much alive.
As well as spoiling Gus Fring's day, this revelation puts a massive dent in the theory claiming Lalo Salamanca maintains his ruse all the way through into Breaking Bad. Lalo managed to deceive Gus for a grand total of one episode before the truth surfaced. Going back to Breaking Bad season 4's Hector conversation - the one where Fring proclaims every Salamanca dead - the Chicken Man definitely can't be under the impression that Better Call Saul season 5's assassination attempt was successful.
Gus figuring out Lalo faked his own death makes Tony Dalton's character being dead in Breaking Bad vastly more likely. For starters, Gus isn't the type to be fooled twice. Next time he attempts ending Lalo's life (and there will be a next time), you can bet he'll accept nothing less than 100% certainty before cracking open the champagne. No way Fring would taunt Hector so openly in Breaking Bad unless Lalo was absolutely, definitively deceased. Additionally, Gus only discovers Lalo's subterfuge in Better Call Saul because Hector Salamanca's gleeful expression gives the game away. When Gus faces Hector again in Breaking Bad season 4 - the Salamanca family's losses again their main topic of conversation - the bell-dinging gangster doesn't show anywhere near the same confidence as in Better Call Saul season 6.
Lalo's chances of survival don't look great, then, but if anyone can slip the Grim Reaper $100 and a wry wink, it's Better Call Saul's wily Salamanca.
Better Call Saul continues Mondays on AMC.