Beau Is Afraid is coming from an acclaimed director and features movie star Joaquin Phoenix, but the movie still has an uphill battle at the box office, considering how much it cost to make. The movie is the third project from filmmaker Ari Aster and follows his two universally acclaimed movies, Hereditary and Midsommar, and while those films are challenging, Beau Is Afraid is Aster's most surreal and impenetrable yet. Joaquin Phoenix plays Beau Wasserman, a paranoid man who's afraid of his mother and goes on a revelatory journey after he's hit by a car. And the film's strange premise will undoubtedly polarize audiences.
The Lynchian film comes from production studio A24, a studio known for taking creative risks and producing weirder and more creative movies than what generally comes out of Hollywood. The studio is also extremely conservative when it comes to budgets, with almost every movie in its catalog having a low budget of much less than $20 million. That means that its films don't need to be phenomenon box office hits to be successes. However, Beau Is Afraid sets a precedent for A24 when it comes to the movie's budget, and while it made for an impressive-looking epic dramedy, its chances of being a financial success are slim to none.
Beau Is Afraid's Budget Is Estimated At $35 Million
The highest budget A24 ever gave to a movie was for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which had a production cost of $25 million. However, Beau Is Afraid totally dwarfs that figure, as Aster's new movie had a budget of $35 million (via Seattle Times). Beau Is Afraid's $35 million cost is more than three times the budget of either of Aster's last movies, as both Hereditary and Midsommar cost $10 million.
Although the budget is a game-changer for A24, the $35 million is clearly visible on screen. The movie has a 20-minute-long dream sequence full of stunning visual effects. A further consideration is that Phoenix's salary is likely a huge percentage of that figure, especially as he's making $20 million for Joker 2 (via Variety).
Beau Is Afraid Needs To Make $90 Million At The Box Office To Be A Hit
Thanks to their low budgets, Hereditary and Midsommar films were huge successes, making $82.5 million and $49 million respectively. But if Beau is Afraid makes that, it'll be considered a box office bomb. A film generally needs to make 2.5 times its budget to be a success, as the marketing cost is usually equal to the production budget, and then there's the movie theatres' cut too. Based on Beau Is Afraid's budget, the movie must make around $90 million to be profitable. Unfortunately, there's little chance of the movie making that, and between the long runtime, the divisive reception, and bad marketing, the film looks unlikely to even recover its $35 million budget.
While Everything Everywhere All at Once had a confusing concept, the marketing leaned heavily into those laugh-out-loud action sequences. Between that and the positive word of mouth, the movie made $140 million worldwide. The 2023 movie, on the other hand, has a confusing trailer that doesn't make clear what the film is about, and it won't have anywhere near the same word of mouth. Beau Is Afraid has 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, and while it's "fresh," 73% isn't exactly the must-see score that'll make audiences feel like it's a must-watch. Ultimately, a three-hour movie about a middle-aged man with maternal issues doesn't sound like a popcorn flick that'll have audiences will be rushing out to see it.
Source: Variety, Seattle Times