Avengers: Infinity War May Not Break Box Office Opening Records

Avengers: Infinity War will undoubtedly be one of the biggest films of 2018, but odds are it will not break one of the all-time opening weekend records. At long last, the cinematic event Marvel Studios has spent 10 years and 18 movies building to is upon us, and many are curious to see just how high its box office numbers go. There was a point in time where some (including us) wondered if it would be able to top the figures posted by the phenomenon that was Black Panther, but now it looks like that showdown won't be a close contest. The most recent projections to come out this week have it pegged for anywhere between $216-235 million domestically, which would pass Star Wars: The Last Jedi for the second-highest debut of all-time. Some feel there's an outside chance Infinity War could even beat The Force Awakens' mark of $247.9 million.

Of course, Marvel finds success in several other countries besides America. Their films are juggernauts around the world, as illustrated by Black Panther becoming the latest member of the $1 billion club. Seeing that the previous two Avengers films (plus de facto Avengers movie Captain America: Civil War) hit the figure, Infinity War is all but guaranteed to cross that threshold as well. But after Black Panther rewrote all of the history books during its dominating run, Infinity War may find itself looking up at a couple of films on the charts when the weekend is through.

Infinity War's Domestic Projections

As indicated above, the all-time record for an opening weekend in the U.S. is Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which was an unprecedented release that will likely never be topped. Episode VII was the first new Star Wars installment in 10 years, arriving shortly after Disney's surprise acquisition of Lucasfilm. The hype for that movie was through the roof, and when word-of-mouth confirmed it (mostly) lived up to those sky-high expectations, Force Awakens was able to claim those #1 positions, eventually grossing an astonishing $936.6 million domestically. Infinity War will not be able to top Star Wars 7's total gross, but the conditions of its debut are the closest we've seen to Force Awakens in the three years since. Marketing has made it clear this isn't your "typical" Marvel movie.

Fortunately, Infinity War was able to continue Marvel's impressive string of consecutive Certified Fresh offerings, earning praise for its ambition and emotional storyline. Admittedly, some of the responses are more mixed than some recent MCU outings (read our review), but most everyone is in agreement Infinity War is a good movie. Not that this particular project needed the positive words of critics to sell tickets, but it never hurts to be riding waves of encouraging buzz into theaters. Movies that break box office records always appeal to four quadrants, and Infinity War's reviews certainly help in this regard. More casual viewers who weren't impatiently counting down the days to Thanos' arrival may be more inclined to brave the opening weekend crowds to see what all the fuss is about (as opposed to waiting until the dust settles), knowing that in all likelihood, it'll be money well-spent.

One interesting thing to keep an eye on is the novelty factor. Infinity War sports one of the largest ensembles in film history, but this isn't the first time we've seen superheroes from multiple properties crossover in a single movie. The childlike thrill of witnessing that watershed history was a key selling point of the first Avengers, which opened with $207.4 million domestically. That haul was not reached by the ensuing MCU team-up films; Age of Ultron debuted to the tune of $191.2 million, while Civil War made $179.1 million in its first three days. Ironically, the larger the cast, the smaller (relatively speaking, of course) the box office was. Granted, Infinity War pulls from all corners of the MCU and delivers the Mad Titan after six years of build-up, but there's still no changing this is Marvel's fourth team-up picture. Infinity War is also the 19th overall entry in the MCU released since 2008, whereas Force Awakens came out after the marketplace had been starved for new content from the galaxy far, far away.

Offsetting that novelty argument, however, is the way Marvel has billed Infinity War. They've been pushing the fact that this is the culmination of the entire MCU to date, serving as the final chapter of a book before the franchise moves to a new era. Even though there will be a fourth Avengers film a year from now, this is still an exciting prospect. Audiences have known Infinity War is Marvel's endgame since it was announced back in 2014, and everyone is curious to see how exactly they pulled it off. When compared to the last few Phase 3 films (including Black Panther), Infinity War feels like a proper event due to the sheer scope of it. A tentpole like this is also in high demand after a quiet March and April saw few new movies breakout. Chances are, Infinity War will score the MCU's highest opening weekend, but it'll fall short of matching Force Awakens if only because no Marvel movie has even come close to $247 million.

The Guardians of the Galaxy on their ship in Avengers Infinity War

Infinity War's Worldwide Release Pattern

The current record-holder for largest opening weekend worldwide is Fate of the Furious, which debuted to a whopping $541.9 million last year. In terms of the MCU, The Avengers has the best global start at "only" $392.5 million (and America outgrossed the rest of the world). Even when the MCU became the unstoppable force it is today, none of their films could reach $400 million in one weekend. Age of Ultron also made $392.5 million, and Civil War brought in $379.5 million. It doesn't take a math major to realize going from $392.5 million to $541.9 million is quite a jump, but there are some important factors to keep in mind. Chief among them is Marvel's notorious history of staggering release dates around the world.

In an effort to combat spoilers from leaking out, Marvel made the decision to premiere Infinity War in a majority of countries on the same weekend. After Friday, April 27, there will be only two territories waiting to see the film (more on that in a second). It's for this reason projections for the global opening (flirting with $500 million) are so much higher than any previous MCU movie. However, this day-and-date release strategy may not be enough to push Infinity War over the hump and top Fate. It all boils down to the all-important market of China, which is one of those two aforementioned countries who remain sans Infinity War. Marvel's blockbuster won't open in the Middle Kingdom until May 11.

Thanos wearing the Infinity Gauntlet in Avengers Infinity War

Over the last several years, China emerged as a power player in the film industry, and a movie's performance there has the potential to make or break it, commercially. In fact, Ready Player One was able to turn a sizable profit due to it posting record-breaking numbers in the country, so China clearly remains viable. Marvel has found astronomical success there; Age of Ultron made $155.7 million in its Chinese opening weekend, while Civil War grossed $93.6 million. Even Black Panther debuted with $65.1 million in China earlier this year. Any of those figures would be more than enough to push Infinity War clear of $541.9 million (considering it hits the high end of projections), but that seems unlikely to happen with the way things are.

As surprising as this is, Infinity War is going to be hard-pressed to earn one of the top three all-time worldwide openings. Even if it hits an even $500 million, it would still be behind Jurassic World ($525.5 million), Force Awakens ($529 million), and Fate of the Furious. The lowest estimates (in the neighborhood of $472 million) would have Infinity War trailing Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($483.2 million), but in either case it looks like Avengers will pass The Last Jedi ($450.8 million) and net at least the fifth-highest debut in history. It'll be interesting to keep tabs on how this develops over the next few days.

While Infinity War doesn't look like it will break any opening weekend records (and admittedly, both are high bars to clear), there's absolutely no reason for Marvel to hang their heads. Just the fact a movie consisting of a collection of one-time B-list and obscure comic book characters even warrants this discussion is nothing short of incredible. It wasn't that long ago when the MCU was seen in some circles as an overly-ambitious project that was too risky to land, but Kevin Feige spearheaded what is this generation's defining cinematic property and something that altered the fabric of Hollywood. No matter how much money Infinity War ends up with, it's something worth celebrating.