After nearly two months of dominating the box office, Avatar: The Way of Water is finally expected to be dethroned from the No. 1 spot. Since releasing in theaters on December 16, James Cameron's long-awaited sci-fi sequel has claimed the top spot at the box office every weekend, even with new releases like M3GAN, A Man Called Otto, and Plane. Now, there is an upcoming release from an acclaimed director that is finally expected to knock Avatar: The Way of Water off from its pedestal.
According to Variety, Knock at the Cabin is expected to finally dethrone Avatar: The Way of Water from the No. 1 spot at the box office this weekend. In its opening weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s new thriller is projected to gross $15 million to $20 million. This should be enough to beat Cameron's enduring blockbuster, which is projected to gross about $11 million in its eighth weekend in theaters and compete with new comedy 80 For Brady for second place.
Avatar: The Way of Water Had A Great Run At No. 1
If Knock at the Cabin does manage to dethrone Avatar: The Way of Water this weekend, it will be after an unprecedented box office run for the long-awaited sequel. Cameron's water-based blockbuster has finished No. 1 at the box office for seven consecutive weeks since its release, the first film to accomplish that feat since 2009's Avatar, the highest-grossing film of all time. These new projections indicate that Knock at the Cabin will end its streak, though Avatar: The Way of Water will look to continue adding to its impressive total gross.
With its seven-consecutive first-place finishes, Avatar: The Way of Water has raked in a total of $2.117 billion globally. This is enough for the fourth highest-grossing film ever behind Avatar, Avengers: Endgame, and Cameron's own Titanic. Even if overtaken by Shyamalan’s thriller, Avatar: The Way of Water could look to reclaim the top spot the following weekend, when it will be going up against another new release in Magic Mike's Last Dance.
Knock at the Cabin's Box Office Projections Explained
Even though it could top Avatar: The Way of Water, Knock at the Cabin's projected opening weekend gross of $15-20 million sounds modest compared to some of Shyamalan’s past hits, such as The Sixth Sense and Unbreakable. However, it is more in line with what his last thriller, 2021's Old, made in its opening weekend, albeit during a time when the COVID-19 pandemic was surging. Shyamalan self-finances his films and keeps his budgets low, meaning Knock at the Cabin won't have to make much at the box office to turn a profit and be considered a success.
Source: Variety