The Avatar sequels are surely destined for greatness, but should Steven Spielberg be looking over his shoulder? Released in 2009, James Cameron's Avatar promised to redefine the boundaries of cinematic visuals. That promise, combined with an A-list cast and marketable blue aliens, carried Avatar to unprecedented box office success and the title of highest grossing movie in history (second, adjusted for inflation). Higher prices for 3D screenings played their part, and Avatar was briefly toppled by Avengers: Endgame, but whatever way you approach it, Avatar's box office haul remains the stuff of legend.
Given Hollywood's track record, it's surprising that Avatar's power to print money didn't translate into quickfire sequel releases. Despite being green-lit without hesitation, Avatar 2 has spent over a decade in production. Between nailing the script and developing the technology required to shoot underwater, the continuation of Jake and Neytiri's story has been a painfully slow process. Complicating matters further, James Cameron has chosen to film Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 back-to-back, and if that wasn't enough Pandora action, two further Avatar films are planned after that, assuming the others perform strongly.
With so much Avatar incoming, James Cameron has a good chance of smashing more box office records (most of them his own), but one in particular presents a challenge. The record for the most highest grossing movies currently belongs to Steven Spielberg, who topped the list on three separate occasions thanks to Jaws (1975), E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982), and Jurassic Park (1993). Spielberg took the honor from The Godfather, then fought off competition from Star Wars to retain the accolade. James Cameron currently holds two highest grossing directorial credits: Titanic (1997) and Avatar (2009). Should any of the forthcoming Avatar sequels dethrone the original on the box office all-time ranking, Cameron would equal Spielberg's record. If two of them top the chart, Spielberg will finally be overtaken.
Whether any of the Avatar sequels can actually beat Cameron's existing record is another matter altogether. On one hand, the first movie's success is a good indicator of Avatar's universal appeal, and overtaking Avengers: Endgame proves that the Na'vi remain popular, despite more than a decade away from the big screen. Although the novelty of 3D has died spectacularly, Avatar 2's promise of unparalleled underwater filming creates that same sense of breaking new ground, and some will buy a ticket purely out of curiosity, just as they did in 2009. Inflation is also on Avatar 2's side; with the highest grossing list not adjusted, the sequel is making more money out of a single ticket in 2022.
But while Avatar 2 will almost certainly prove lucrative, can it really make history for James Cameron a third time? So long has passed, it's hard to say whether Avatar 2 is a sequel or a nostalgia revival at this point. The upcoming string of Avatar movies face an entirely different audience, as younger viewers who enjoyed the first movie will now be fully-grown adults, possibly with kids of their own. This could work to Cameron's advantage, or dampen all enthusiasm for Jake Sully's long-awaited return. Avatar 2 is also unable to rely on the same 3D boost as the first film. Underwater sequences are certainly exciting, but cinema chains can't bump up their prices just because Kate Winslet isn't on dry land. One Avatar sequel topping the all-time box office and equaling Spielberg's record would be monumental; two would be miraculous. Crucially though, neither is impossible.
If Spielberg were to lose his crown, he might still claim a moral victory. Even if every single Avatar movie generates more cash than the last and James Cameron terminates Spielberg's record, all but one of his highest-grossing films would hail from the same franchise. Spielberg, on the other hand, hit the top spot with three completely unconnected (and very different) movies, which says something about how sequel-reliant modern Hollywood has become. But since it was Cameron's Titanic that sunk Jurassic Park, Steven Spielberg could be watching Avatar 2's performance very closely.
