Avatar: The Way of Water has climbed to #11 at the all-time domestic box office and #4 at the global box office, but how much more will it earn, how many more movies will it pass, and where will it rank before its box office run is over? As James Cameron's follow-up to the highest-grossing movie of all time (Avatar), which broke James Cameron's previous record with the highest-grossing movie of all time (Titanic), the box office potential of Avatar: The Way of Water has always been hotly debated.
With $2.12 billion at the global box office, Avatar: The Way of Water has earned more than every movie in history other than Titanic, Avengers: Endgame, and the original Avatar, but its $620.6 million domestic haul puts it at #11 domestically, poised to pass numerous other movies in the coming weeks. It's not yet clear just how high Avatar: The Way of Water will climb in the box office ranks, but a few trends in its current behavior could provide a hint of how it'll perform against the other top 10 movies.
Avatar: The Way of Water is About to Pass At Least 4 More Movies at the Domestic Box Office
Having just reached $620.6 million domestically, Avatar: The Way of Water sped past #12 Incredibles 2 ($608.6 million) and #11 Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($620.2 million), and is now hot on the heels of #10 ranked domestic earner The Avengers ($623.4 million). At its current pace, it's poised to pass at least four more movies in the next few weeks, including #10 The Avengers, #9 Jurassic World ($653.4 million), #8 Titanic ($659.4), #7 Avengers: Infinity War ($678.1), and #5 Black Panther ($700.4), all of which (other than Titanic) it's already passed in its total worldwide box office earnings.
In order to pass all those movies, Avatar: The Way of Water needs to earn an additional $80 million. For comparison, at the same point in its domestic run, Top Gun Maverick had earned $597.4 million, and in the remainder of its run it grossed almost another $120 million. Avatar: The Way of Water is currently performing relatively similarly to Top Gun: Maverick day-to-day, although it's not clear how its pace will change going forward. Spider-Man: No Way Home had already earned $735.9 million by this point in its run, but earned just under $68 from this point onward, and Avatar: The Way of Water's comparative pace suggests it'll clear that number.
While Spider-Man: No Way Home's $260 million opening weekend nearly doubled Avatar: The Way of Water's $134 million, it dropped off way faster, and Avatar: The Way of Water has averaged 50 percent more than Spider-Man: No Way Home day-to-day since the end of their second weekend, so its current pace puts it well ahead of the $80 million threshold it needs to reach the #6 domestic spot, but how far it goes beyond that remains to be seen.
Avatar 2 Already Beat Spider-Man: No Way Home and The Force Awakens Globally, But Probably Won't Domestically
While Avatar: The Way of Water is already the fourth highest-grossing movie of all time globally and poised to climb to sixth highest-grossing movie of all time domestically, there's a few movies on the domestic ranking it's already passed globally that it doesn't have much of a chance to pass domestically, including #3 Spider-Man: Now Way Home ($814.1 million), #2 Avengers: Endgame ($858.4 million), and #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million).
To reach Spider-Man: No Way Home's $814 million domestic total, Avatar: The Way of Water needs nearly $200 million more from its current domestic gross, and as calculated above, it's more likely to earn between $68 million and $120 million. Even the first Avatar only earned $150 million after this point in its run, and while Avatar: The Way of Water's current total than Avatar's at the same point, Avatar it by almost $65 million between its third and sixth weekends, so the odds of Avatar: The Way of Water picking up enough to even come close to top three movies domestically are virtually zero.
Avatar 2 Already Beat Top Gun: Maverick At the Global Box Office, But Might Not Domestically
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Avatar: The Way of Water's $2.12 billion global total is already $600 million more than Top Gun: Maverick earned globally, but it has yet to surpass the Top Gun sequel's incredible #5 ranked $718.7 million domestic run. To pass Top Gun: Maverick's domestic box office, Avatar: The Way of Water needs to earn an additional $100 million before the end of its run. After its sixth weekend, Top Gun: Maverick went on to earn almost $120 million, and while Avatar: The Way of Water has grossed over $23 million more domestically so far than Top Gun: Maverick did at this point in its run, The Way of Water has slipped against Maverick in the past two weeks.
Despite building up a $54 million box office lead over Top Gun: Maverick for their respective first 23 days, Avatar: The Way of Water's lead slipped to just over $23 million by day 45. Despite the gap between the movies shrinking so fast from day 23 to 45, it's significantly evened out in the last week as the two movies have seen far more similar performances. It's not clear if Avatar: The Way of Water will match, or even exceed Top Gun: Maverick's day-to-day earnings going forward, but as long as The Way of Water's performance maintains its current pace it'll beat Top Gun: Maverick's domestic by the end of its run.
Avatar 2 Will Likely Beat Titanic's Box Office Records Twice
Since Titanic is only ranked #8 domestically at the box office with $659.4 million, all of the above scenarios would include Avatar: The Way of Water earning the $40 million it needs to beat it; however, unlike all the movies already mentioned, Avatar: The Way of Water has yet to pass Titanic's $2.19 billion at the global box office. While this puts the #3 globally ranked movie in a unique position compared to many other movies in the top 10, Avatar: The Way of Water is still poised to surpass it in just 2-3 weeks thanks to its strong international performance.
James Cameron's Titanic is an anomaly in the list of top 10 highest-grossing movies, as it's the oldest movie on the list by over a decade, and its global total has only been surpassed twice since it originally earned the #1 spot in 1997, with Cameron beating it himself with Avatar in 2009, and the Russo Bros. beating it another decade later with Avengers: Endgame in 2019. The Way of Water only needs to earn $70 million more globally to beat Titanic, meaning it has a clear shot to becoming the #3 ranked movie of all time at the global box office, but it could have trouble rising any higher than that.
Avatar 2 Probably Won't Beat Avengers: Endgame's Box Office Domestically OR Globally
Avatar: The Way of Water may be in easy striking distance of Titanic's #3 box office rank, but Avengers: Endgame's #2 spot with $858.4 million domestic box office and $2.8 billion at the global box office seems to be out of The Way of Water's grasp, even under the best conditions. With a domestic lead of nearly $240 million and a global lead of $682.9 million, Avatar: The Way of Water would need legs even stronger than the first Avatar, which its been lagging against every single day since its third weekend.
While Avengers: Endgame seems out of reach for now, it's not entirely impossible for Avatar: The Way of Water to surpass it eventually. But both Titanic and Avatar have both seen multiple highly successful re-releases, which is the only reason the first Avatar is currently ranked #1 anyway, since Avengers: Endgame briefly passed it in 2019 until a 2021 Chinese re-release bumped Avatar back on top. If Avatar: The Way of Water hits at least $2.5 billion globally as we previously predicted, it could still need as much as $300 million to still pass Avengers: Endgame, so even this path to the #2 slot should be considered low odds.
Avatar 2 Might Beat Avatar 1 Domestically, But Not Globally
If Avengers: Endgame is out of reach for Avengers: The Way of Water then the #1 ranked Avatar is certainly off the table. With $2.92 billion globally and $785.2 million domestically, Avatar's top box office spot is almost certainly out of reach for Avatar: The Way of Water at this point, however, there's a slim chance it could reach the $749.8 million Avatar earned in its initial domestic run. While Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $134 million, the original Avatar only earned $77 million its opening weekend, which is even more impressive considering it was earning more day-to-day than Avatar: The Way of Water at the same point in its run.
After its 45th day, Avatar collected just over $150 million more, landing at $449.8 million, which Avatar: The Way of Water can only reach if it brings in almost $130 million more domestically. The Way of Water has struggled to consistently put up numbers as good as Top Gun: Maverick the past few weeks, which would suggest $120 million more (matching the remainder of Top Gun: Maverick's box office run) would be the most positive prediction, but since Avatar: The Way Of Water has a proven tendency to consistently exceed expectations, putting up at least $130 million more in the remainder of its run shouldn't be ruled out.
When Avatar: The Way of Water climbs to the #3 spot globally, James Cameron will officially have three of the top four films of all time, and while it'd be the only one of his last three films to not reach the #1 rank, the accomplishment isn't any less significant considering no other director has nearly as much success. Regardless of how much more Avatar: The Way of Water earns, it's already seen a historic box office haul and sets high expectations for Avatar 3 and the rest of the Avatar sequels on the way.
