Avatar 2 isn't your typical Hollywood blockbuster, so what does James Cameron's long, long-anticipated sequel actually need to achieve before it can be considered a success? In 2009, James Cameron decided to prove his box office-beating ability wasn't limited to watery love stories. Avatar - his 3D sci-fi labor of love - quickly rose to theatrical glory, becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time. Despite briefly losing that crown to the MCU (2019's Avengers: Endgame), Avatar will remain atop the cinematic pile when Avatar: Way of the Water finally splashes down in 2022.
Avatar 2's release isn't only unique because of its predecessor's monstrous success (although the enormity of that legacy is impossible to escape), but also because the sequel has been gestating so long. Cameron began discussing potential Avatar sequels before the first movie even released, but an extended period of scripting, development of underwater technology, and the decision to push ahead with Avatar 3, 4 and 5 mean over a decade has passed.
A seemingly insurmountable legacy and torturously long development make Avatar 2 a unique proposition. Cameron's follow-up simply can't be judged by the metrics and standards of most Hollywood blockbusters. What would need to happen before Avatar: The Way of Water can truly be considered a successful venture?
Avatar 2 Defies Traditional Measures Of Success
The vast majority of Hollywood movie sequels subscribe to the notion that failure to match or exceed the previous film's box office denotes a poor performance. It's the same principle that applies more broadly in business - if your charts are pointing down, something isn't working. Although certain caveats may apply (COVID restrictions, a sequel deliberately aiming for a smaller scale etc.) whether or not a sequel improves upon its predecessor is a fair barometer of success - but not for Avatar 2.
While certainly not an impossible feat, expecting Avatar 2 to topple Avatar at the box office is unfair, largely due to how much time has passed between entries. Avatar's original audience is 13 years older, meaning many teens blown away by Pandora's splendor in 2009 will now have a mortgage and kids of their own. And it's not just the consumers - movie distribution is a completely different beast in 2022 compared to when Avatar premiered. The rise of streaming, the lingering impact of COVID-19, and a considerably more volatile market mean Avatar will return to a theatrical landscape every bit as alien as Pandora once was to Jake Sully.
Avatar 2 Box Office - What Needs To Happen?
Generally speaking, breaching the $1 billion barrier is considered the hallmark of a very successful movie. It's an exclusive club occupied by only 51 releases, and the likes of Spider-Man: No Way Home and Jurassic World Dominion prove the feat remains perfectly attainable post-pandemic. Avatar 2 failing to pass the $1 billion mark could only be judged a disaster. Considering the first film's record-breaking antics, the James Cameron factor, and Avatar 2's epic scale, even grossing in the region of $1.5 billion smells of underperformance (though wouldn't be an abject horror show in the current climate).
In a June 2022 Empire interview, James Cameron admitted Avatar 2 pulling in "20 percent or 30 percent less... would be bad." Avatar's original theatrical run (deducting subsequent re-releases) scored $2.7 billion, so by Cameron-math, even $1.8-2.1 billion is less-than-ideal for Avatar 2. Crazy as it may sound, that concession begins to make more sense when taking into account the surprise recent prosperity of Top Gun: Maverick (currently around $1.4 billion). If Tom Cruise in a plane can pull such numbers, the Na'vi should rightly expect to surpass him.
Nevertheless, only five movies have grossed over $2 billion - the most recent being Avengers: Endgame. Avatar: The Way of Water becoming the sixth movie to gross $2 billion - even if it doesn't trouble Avatar's 2009 numbers - would probably represent a strong showing in the eyes of many. True success for Avatar 2, therefore, probably does begin at $2 billion. At the very least, James Cameron being able to claim he directed half of Hollywood's entire "$2 billion club" would deflect conversation away from Avatar 2 making up to $700 million less than the original.
Critical & Audience Reaction Won't Change Whether Avatar 2 Is A Success
Critical and audience reaction to Avatar is a curious beast. Contemporary reviews and responses were largely positive, but those opinions have soured without 3D spectacle and big screen visuals to fall back on. Avatar 2 must prove the doubters wrong and overcome concerns over the franchise's longevity and relevance.
But Avatar 2's critical reaction as a measure of success is intrinsically linked to the sequel's commercial performance. If Avatar 2's financial prospects look weak, negative responses will only rub salt in the wound. If James Cameron once again defies box office logic, however, those salty online write-ups aren't likely to detract from Avatar 2's monetary achievements.
By far the most intriguing of all potential outcomes would be Avatar 2 flopping at the box office, but wowing critics and winning over skeptical audiences. Most directors would take at least half a win if their underperforming movie was joyously received, but Avatar's legacy is so tightly wound inside financial prosperity, even the warmest reception wouldn't cushion the box office blow should Avatar 2 fail to make bank.