Thirteen years after the release of the original pop-culture and box-office phenomenon, Avatar: The Way of Water is now tracking to have the biggest worldwide opening weekend of 2022 and the best since Spider-Man: No Way Home's pandemic-era record $583 million opening in 2020. The current holder of the 2022 title for opening weekend is Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which pulled in $449 million worldwide. James Cameron's sequel is the first of many planned Avatar follow-ups with Disney after its acquisition of 20th Century Fox in 2019. The director had a number of creative differences with 20th Century on the first film, one of which Cameron recently revealed to be the film's nearly three-hour runtime.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, if the current tracking is to be trusted, Avatar 2 is expected to bring in $150-175 million domestically and $450-$550 million at the worldwide box office. The film's projections are boosted by its scheduled release in China, which THR speculates could add upwards of $100 million to the film's total opening weekend gross.
Can Avatar: The Way of Water Meet Its High Expectations?
The massive expectations surrounding the Avatar sequel have ramped up further over the last few weeks. James Cameron has boasted about his film's visual spectacle, saying that its motion-capture VFX are better than that of MCU's iconic villain Thanos. Additionally, he recently revealed that his film needs to have an all-time great performance at the box office to break even. Reports suggest that The Way of Water has a budget of upwards of $350-400 million, which would put it in contention with Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' record $379 million non-inflation-adjusted budget in 2011. That number doesn't include marketing, either, which Disney has done a lot of for the new Avatar.
Securing a Chinese release is a big deal for Avatar 2. The original pulled in more than $200 million in China, making it the largest international market for the film. If Cameron's claims about what his new movie needs to make at the box office are true, The Way of Water will need to perform similarly to the original's $2 billion+ haul in international markets during its run in theaters. Those gaudy numbers aren't totally out of the realm of possibilities, either. It is well-placed on the movie calendar, and with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever winding down its theatrical run, it will have limited competition during a big Christmas-time window for moviegoers.
The film's success has implications far beyond just how happy it will make Disney's shareholders, though. If The Way of Water doesn't turn a profit on its huge budget, the future of Cameron's future stories in the Avatar universe could be in jeopardy. While its opening weekend numbers will be important, Disney has communicated that they are looking, more so, for the film to have legs. Top Gun: Maverick is a recent example of the importance of good reviews and word of mouth leading to sustained box-office success. Tom Cruise's daring fighter-pilot film took the world by storm and had tremendous legs week-over-week during its run.
Ultimately, the audience will decide the future of James Cameron's run with the franchise. There doesn't appear to be much reason for concern, though. The hype surrounding Avatar: The Way of Water has grown over recent weeks, with its projections steadily increasing. The projections are set to go out the window, though, with the film hitting theaters on December 15. It's sink or swim time for Cameron's underwater adventure.
Source: The Hollywood Reporter
