New long-range Avatar: The Way of Water opening weekend box office projections have the sequel nearly doubling James Cameron's first movie. The original 2009 sci-fi film broke all sorts of box office records on its path to becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time. Avatar's incredible box office success has in turn brought a lot of attention to how much money Avatar 2 will make. Even though no one expects the sequel to outgross Avatar's $2.9 billion worldwide haul, the movie's big budget and Disney's investment in the franchise's future means that there is some pressure on Avatar: The Way of Water to perform.
According to new long-range tracking provided by Box Office Pro, Avatar: The Way of Water is now projected to make more than $135 million in its opening weekend domestically. The original Avatar's box office debut included a $77M opening domestically 13 years ago in December, so these new projections call for Avatar 2's opening weekend box office to nearly double the original. These projections even call for the sequel to make $475M domestically by the conclusion of its theatrical run, which is lower than earlier reports and about half of what Avatar made domestically.
Will Avatar: The Way Of Water's Box Office Beat The First Movie?
A high opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water would be a great start for the sequel at the box office. The reported $135M opening would mean the follow-up will make in one weekend what it took James Cameron's first movie a full week to earn. However, Avatar 2's box office will still have a tough path to beating the original. The magic of Avatar's improbable box office run is the film's incredible word of mouth and repeat viewings that helped keep the movie relevant and in theaters for 234 days. That is unheard of nowadays, even for the biggest movies. For reference, Top Gun: Maverick topped out at 161 days this year.
There is little belief that Avatar: The Way of Water will beat the original movie, but it does not need to become the highest-grossing movie ever to be a success. The excitement for the sequel has largely squashed the rhetoric that Avatar did not leave a lasting impression on general audiences. Even if the sequel's box office is half as much as the first movie, it would still make $1.3 billion, which would make Avatar 2's billion-dollar box office a huge success. It is enough to be the second highest-grossing movie of 2022.
Avatar 2's Box Office Could Change James Cameron's Sequel Plans
There is still some pressure on Avatar 2's box office to be good enough to keep James Cameron's sequel plans alive. He is attached to make three more sequels, with Avatar 3 already completely filmed. Some work is also done on Avatar 4. However, the director has admitted that if the sequel's box office disappoints and indicates audiences are not interested, Avatar 3 could be the end of the franchise. In that fashion, Avatar: The Way of Water's box office will play a huge role in determining what comes next for James Cameron's movies.
Source: Box Office Pro
