Quantumania Reveals an MCU Box Office Problem Bigger Than Ant-Man

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania has the biggest second-weekend box office drop in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but it reveals big box office problem for the franchise. While box office isn't a judge of quality, the second-weekend drop often serves as a measurement of audience sentiment and word of mouth, so a big drop like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's is certainly a bad sign for the movie's box office tally going forward.

After a $106.2 million opening weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania became the first Ant-Man movie to see more than $100 million at the domestic box office in its first weekend, but its second weekend isn't so positive with an MCU-high 69.7 percent drop to $32.2 million. For contrast, the previous Ant-Man movie, Ant-Man and the Wasp, opened almost 30 million lower at $75.8 million, yet Ant-Man and the Wasp's $29 million second weekend was only $3 million less than Quantumania's second weekend. While the huge drop is a problem, there's still some important context to add.

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Has The Worst 2nd Weekend Box Office Worst Drop In The MCU

Paul Rudd and Kathryn Newton in Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania-1

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's $32.2 million second weekend is a 69.7 percent drop, which is a worse second-weekend drop than any other movie in the MCU. The MCU's average second-weekend drop is 57.5 percent, and prior to Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Black Widow had the MCU's biggest second-weekend drop of 67.8, which the National Association of Theatre Owners blamed on Black Widow's early Disney+ streaming release. While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania drop is undeniably bad, there's a lot more to its box office story and larger MCU box office context.

Every MCU Movie After Phase 3 Had A Way Bigger Box Office Drop

The MCU's average second-weekend box office drop is far lower than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, but the numbers shifted dramatically after the COVID-19 pandemic. The second weekend drops from Phase 1-3 ranged from 54.3 percent to 57.2 percent, averaging 55.5 percent, but the average went way up to 64.9 percent in Phase 4 coinciding with theater shutdowns due to the pandemic. Quantumania's 69.7 percent drop is still nearly 5 percent higher than that average, but it's only 8.1 points higher than Ant-Man and the Wasp's 61.6 percent, while the rest of Phase 4's 64.2 percent average drop is actually 8.7 points higher than the 55.5 MCU average box office drop.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's big second-weekend drop is clearly a big problem, but these numbers make it clear the problem isn't unique to Quantumania, but also the whole MCU (and likely most other box office releases) is seeing much higher drops than before the pandemic. Phase 4's box office drop can't solely be blamed on the pandemic, since there's a big drop in Phase 4 review scores in Rotten Tomatoes as well, especially with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's, the MCU's second Rotten score. Either way, the MCU could face a big box office and review problem heading into Phase 5.

Next: Predicting Phase 5 Box Office Based Off Ant-Man