January 2023's box office is up over 50 percent over January 2022, but it's not just because of the massive success of Avatar: The Way of Water. While more movies are hitting theaters and there's been plenty of big hits, the box office still has a lot of growing to do to catch up with the highs of 2019 and the preceding decade.
Avatar: The Way of Water's massive performance has been a huge point of focus for this year's box office. While it's a great sign of the theatrical market becoming more healthy overall, it also revealed the biggest problems with the current state of the box office. Despite some big hits, the box office is seeing fewer releases than in pre-pandemic years, smaller grosses, and worse legs.
Post-Pandemic Box Office Has Hit Movies, But Not Hit Months
With movies like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water, all of which are in the top 10 highest-grossing movies of all time at the domestic box office, and all but Top Gun Maverick are in the top 10 globally (Top Gun: Maverick ranks 12th), the theatrical market may look like it's roaring back; however, focusing on the biggest performers obfuscates the true state of the broader state of the box office. Almost every single month in 2020, 2021, and 2022 have been decade box office lows, other than July 2022, which only beat July 2014, October 2021, which only beat October 2017, and December 2021, which only beat December 2014.
January 2023's box office improved on January 2022 by over 50 percent, which is a big deal, but it's still way below every single pre-pandemic January all the way back to January 2000, and that's without adjusting for inflation. Additionally, the top nine movies in 2019 earned over $1 billion, and the same was true for the top 5 in 2018 and the top four in 2017. Since then, only four movies have hit the $1 billion mark: Spider-Man: No Way Home, Jurassic World: Dominion, Top gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water.
Avatar: The Way of Water is a Box Office Splash, But Can't Fix the Box Office Alone
Avatar: The Way of Water is the fourth highest-grossing movie of all time, and may even climb into third place at the box office by the end of its run. Its success is a much-needed shot in the arm for the box office, but its performance also reveals the box office's biggest shortcomings. Big movies like Avatar: The Way of Water are an integral part to a functioning box office, especially when their box office run is stretches as long as The Way of Water's has, but they can't drive the whole industry alone.
The post-COVID box office hasn't been without its hits, but the box office still needs a robust slate of smaller hits. From 2010-2019 there was an average of over 2300 movies released in theaters every year, but in 2020 there were only 881 movies released, in 2021 there were only 986, and in 2022 there were only 1,158. So far, 2023 is seeing more releases than the past two years, but it's still barely more than half of January 2020.
Movies like Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick were huge hits, along with Avatar: The Way of Water, but billion-dollar movies traditionally only make up a small portion of the total box office. Even in the record-setting 2019, half of total box office revenue came from movies that grossed under $300 million, while 34 percent came from movies that made under $100 million. Meanwhile, in 2020, 2021, and 2022, the top 10 movies accounted for an average of around half of total box office earnings, meaning the box office growth is mostly coming from big movies at the top absorbing the increases as opposed to an industry-wide recovery.
The Biggest Post-Pandemic Movies Reveal the Box Office's Biggest Problem
Despite the massive success of a few massive blockbusters, the box office is still down overall. Individual movies earning less than they would have pre-pandemic gets a lot of the blame for this, and while it's certainly a factor, that drastic reduction in the number of movies actually releasing in theaters is also to blame; however, simply pumping theaters with more new content alone doesn't fill auditoriums. This is where the long-tail success from movies like Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water make a big difference in getting audiences back to theaters with big theatrical experiences.
While Spider-Man: No Way Home made far more domestically than Avatar: The Way of Water will, it made a far larger percentage of its box office in December while Avatar: The Way of Water extended its run into January. Spider-Man: No Way Home earned $163.8 million in January 2022, while Scream earned $62.6 million for the month, Sing 2 earned $58.1 million, The King's Man earned $17.9 million, and The 355 earned $13.1 million. Meanwhile, in January 2023, Avatar: The Way of Water earned $222.5, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earned $86.5, M3GAN earned $83 million, A Man Called Otto earned $47.6 million, and Plane earned $26,138,048.
Correlation doesn't prove causation and there are numerous other factors impacting the box office recovery, so it wouldn't be fair to say Avatar: The Way of Water's box office is responsible for the success of other hit January movies; however, a rising tide lifts all boats, comparing January 2022 and January 2023 it's apparent that the box office success is far more distributed. So, while Avatar: The Way of Water was a huge hit, the compliment of other January hits alongside The Way of Water resulted in a revenue increase of over 50 percent compared to the previous January.
The good news is the post-pandemic box office continues to improve year over year from its historical low of 2022, but it's important to look beyond the success of the biggest blockbusters and ensure more total movies are finding success in theaters. Numerous predictions over the years suggested smaller movies will eventually cease to be financially viable as the biggest blockbusters eat up a growing share of box office revenue, and that's exactly the trend the box office is following now. For the box office to truly recover, big movies need to spread their lifespan out with longer legs and smaller movies need to play a vital role in boosting overall theatrical revenue.
