A new decade has arrived, which means a new era of movies is also about to begin. Movies will change in the 2020s as the industry continues to shift away from traditional models of distribution. Based on the last decade's highest-selling films, the 2020s are sure to see more super-hero franchises; however, that doesn't mean that the decade will only be more of the same.
Each decade of American cinema is known for building upon the past while establishing its own identity in the process. It's still too early to do an objective retrospective on the last decade, and far too early to say what themes or directorial styles will dominate the 2020s; however, it isn't too early to look at how the constantly evolving art form of film could change in the subsequent decade.
There are plenty of changes on the horizon in the 2020s for movies both big and small, theatrical and streaming, Disney and non-Disney. Looking toward the next decade of changes for movies, there is one particularly undeniable truth about modern cinema: streaming is here to stay.
Streaming Is Here To Stay
Films hailing from streaming services have only been around for a little over four years at this point, yet they've already managed to solidify themselves as a steady part of the moviegoing scene. This became especially apparent in recent years, as Netflix has dominated award season and released numerous broadly-appealing movies like Marriage Story and 6 Underground that generated immense interest from moviegoers across the globe. Any initial worries streaming would simply become a new term for direct-to-video cinema has evaporated thanks to the likes of Marriage Story and The Irishman.
For the new decade, not only is Netflix continuing its massive feature film push, but a whole slew of other streaming services are also expanding their reach into the world of original film content. Hulu is aggressively expanding its original film slate, ditto for Amazon, while newbie streaming services HBO MAX and Peacock will be delivering a steady slate of original feature films. It's too early to say if original movies from, say, Peacock, will have the same pop culture impact as original movies originating from Netflix, but it is clear at this moment that streaming cinema is no fluke. It's now just another part of the movie scene.
Less Reliance On In-Theater Gimmicks
The 2010s began with a massive emphasis on 3D thanks to the record-breaking box office of Avatar. By the time the decade ended, 3D's relevance to American moviegoers had mostly ended. Though foreign territories like China still embrace 3D, the 2010s saw 3D sharply decline in value for Americans attending movie theaters. Attempts over the course of this decade to find other gimmicks, like higher-frame-rate projection or the Barco Escape, that would resonate strongly with moviegoers (and get them to shell out extra bucks for higher-priced tickets) mostly fizzled out. That lack of success with new in-theater gimmicks is likely to heavily influence any attempts to pursue further gimmicks in the 2020s.
Combining the lack of success with new gimmicks and the fact that some of the biggest non-tentpole sleeper hits in recent years have been films like Knives Out or The Greatest Showman, it's likely both movie studios and movie theaters will forego experimenting with new in-theater technology in the near future. Knives Out showed that it's still possible to generate major box office numbers through traditional 2D releases. The one potential wrinkle here is the presence of Avatar 2 in 2021. Just as Avatar ushered in a new age of 3D in 2009, Avatar 2 could kick off an era of dominance for whatever in-theater technology it's presented with. Maybe the movie that revives audiences' love for modern 3D will be the one that instilled that love in the first place.
Disney's Dominance Will Continue... For Now
When the 2010s began, Disney was licking its wounds over a series of box office flops like Prince of Persia: Sands of Time and The Sorcerer's Apprentice. When the final year of the decade rolled around, they had bought up 20th Century Fox & Fox Searchlight while also releasing 80% of the biggest movies of 2019 at the domestic box office. That kind of massive momentum has led to Disney dominating the worldwide movie scene and even with a much more low-key 2020 film slate, Disney's status as a cinematic titan isn't looking to end anytime soon, especially in terms of box office prowess.
Per Deadline, Disney will start combining box office grosses for 20th Century Fox and Fox Searchlight titles into their annual box office haul for the first time in 2020. The already gargantuan market share that the Disney empire has of the worldwide box office is about to get even larger. In the aforementioned Deadline piece, they mention that Disney and the Fox studios generated 37% of the domestic box office revenue in 2019 and that number is likely to be even larger in 2020 when both of the Fox studios release more titles. Considering all that, Disney, at the moment, looks totally unstoppable, especially since their upcoming slate includes four Marvel movies a year starting in 2021 and a quartet of Avatar sequels.
However, there are some worrisome signs for the decade ahead. For one thing, the amount of classic animated movies they can remake into modern-day remakes is dwindling by the day, it's hard to imagine Disney will still be able to produce these movies by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, it's still uncertain how well Disney can integrate the two Fox movie studios into the larger company. Can they have as much success marketing adult-skewing dramas as they do with Marvel movies? It's also worth noting that other rival studios, chiefly Paramount Pictures, are bolstering their profiles as the new decade approaches. While it looks like Disney will be able to maintain its leadership position in the world of film for the time being, there's also plenty of newly-revived competition as the new decade gets underway.
The Indie Scene Is Not Dead
At the same time that Disney is expanding its presence to massive new levels, the American indie film scene, which prides itself on its tininess, is actually having a resurgence in some unexpected ways. For one thing, A24 is becoming a kind of Disney for the indie scene, a recognizable trustworthy brand name. However, A24's brand name promises the fresh and unexpected to moviegoers, whereas the Disney brand name promises something more familiar and safe to patrons. A24's increasing level of visibility led to a number of impressive box office hits in 2019, including The Farewell and Uncut Gems, and the studio is expanding its profile significantly for 2020 and beyond.
The success of A24 shows that unorthodox small-scale fare can still succeed on the big screen in the age of rampant Disney tentpoles, and the same can be said for the recent success of documentaries and foreign-language features. These are two genres that have long thought to be theatrical box office poison, but that changed in 2018 and 2019. These two years saw numerous box office hits like Won't You Be My Neighbor and Parasite prove that audiences will come out for any kind of film so long as it looks entertaining and/or resonates with them. While it's unlikely these box office hits will lead to Disney abandoning Marvel Studios fare in favor of distributing Lee Chang-dong movies, such successes will likely lead to arthouse studios being more aggressive in pushing such fare in the 2020s. As big studios like Disney get bigger, the 2020s could be marked by indie studios embracing the distinct and small-scale.
More Original Tentpoles
One of the most unexpected trends at the start of the 2020s is how the first year of this decade already has release dates penciled in for a larger-than-expected amount of tentpole titles that aren't based on previously existing source material. There are plenty of remakes and sequels on the way, but 2020 alone brings about Tenet, Free Guy and The Tomorrow War as well as a trio of completely original animated titles from Disney. It's hard to say at this time if this is just a fluke (2021 currently doesn't have anywhere near as many original titles penciled in for theatrical release) or a larger sign of Hollywood studios doing more to embrace originality in their big-budget fare.
A potential shift towards more original cinema could be spurred on by competition from the original films from Netflix, a streaming service unafraid to push original tentpoles like Bright. It could also be a move done in recognizing that a familiar brand-name couldn't salvage the box office of the likes of Terminator: Dark Fate or Cats, so why not take a chance on original content? The fact that the last few years saw a number of original movies, including a number of titles from the aforementioned indie studio A24, soar at the box office could also be a reason for why 2020 has a larger-than-usual number of original tentpoles. If 2020's slate of original titles flop, Hollywood will likely make sure such features end up being an anomaly, but if they succeed, they could kick off a new decade with a greater emphasis on original titles than the remake/sequel heavy slate that dominated the 2010s.
