Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 19 – 21, 2017.

This weekend, 12 Strong opens in 3,002 theaters, Den of Thieves plays in 2,432 locations, and Forever My Girl debuts in 1,115 theaters.

#1 – Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

We believe Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (read our review) will be able to pull off the three-peat this weekend. Once the hoopla surrounding Star Wars: The Last Jedi died down, the adventure film soared to the top of the charts and hasn’t looked back since. With little in the way of meaningful competition opening this weekend, The Rock’s latest vehicle should be able to continue its domination and win the weekend again. It’s been holding very well for the last month.

Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart Jumanji Box Office Prediction: 12 Strong vs. Jumanji

#2 – 12 Strong

Our choice for second is 12 Strong (read our review), the new war drama starring Chris Hemsworth. The film is based on the true story of the Horse Soldiers, who were among the first American soldiers deployed in Afghanistan during the war on terror. It appears to be targeting the same demographic as Michael Bay’s 13 Hours, which opened to the tune of $16.1 million back in 2016. That number seems like a reasonable ballpark for 12 Strong, which is projected to bow with around $12 million in its first three days. The famous names in its cast give it a boost in star power, though reviews have been mixed and it will have to contend with the NFL playoffs this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see how it performs, but since January is relatively quiet, the film should be able to post respectable figures.

#3 – The Post

Coming in third should be The Post (read our review), which finished in second last week with $19.3 million. The historical drama will be appealing for cinephiles looking to keep up on all of this year’s awards contenders. It’s done well on the daily charts throughout the week, at times challenging Jumnaji for the #1 position. The Post should be able to do well ahead of the Oscar nominations being announced, especially with the pedigree behind it.

The Post Tom Hanks Box Office Prediction: 12 Strong vs. Jumanji

#4 – The Commuter

Our choice for fourth is The Commuter (read our review). Liam Neeson’s latest action flick outperformed expectations in its debut, bringing in $13.7 million last week. Though the movie isn’t a critical darling, it’s still received decent marks as a fun, if silly, time at the movies and that certainly can get the job done this time of year. It should be able to stick around for at least another week.

#5 – Den of Thieves

Rounding out the top five should be Den of Thieves, a new crime thriller featuring an ensemble fronted by Gerard Butler and 50 Cent. Unfortunately, the reviews for this one haven’t been great, as the film struggled to live up to its high-minded aspirations (Michael Mann’s Heat was a clear influence). With several other movies currently vying for the attention of audiences, Den of Thieves will have an uphill climb at the box office. Estimates call for an opening weekend of just $5.9 million.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • The Post
  • Paddington 2
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Proud Mary

Actuals

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • The Post
  • The Commuter
  • The Greatest Showman
  • Insidious: The Last Key

Next week: Maze Runner: The Death Cure, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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