Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from 10 Cloverfield Lanes opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of March 18 – 20, 2016.

This weekend, The Divergent Series: Allegiant debuts in 3,700 theaters and The Bronze opens in 1,167 locations. In limited release, Midnight Special plays in 5 theaters and Kapoor and Sons opens in 144 locations.

#1 – Zootopia

Disney’s Zootopia (read our review) should get the three-peat this week. The animated hit has been the clear winner at the box office recently, bringing in $51.3 million during its second weekend. Thanks to stellar word-of-mouth from critics and audiences alike, the film has demonstrated strong legs commercially, and there’s little reason to doubt that will continue. For one more week, the animals of Zootopia have reason to celebrate.

Zootopia Jason Bateman Nick Wilde Box Office Prediction: Zootopia vs. Allegiant


#2 – The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Our pick for second is the latest young adult adaptation, The Divergent Series: Allegiant. Though the films are based on best selling books, they don’t seem to have much pull with moviegoers. In comparison to similar franchises such as Harry Potter and The Hunger GamesDivergent is lacking. It’s on a downward trajectory, as last year’s Insurgent made $20 million less domestically than the first film. Seeing that the previous movies failed to reach the $200 million plateau (topping out at $150.9 million), it’s hard to envision a scenario where the threequel is a crossover hit. The early reviews have been awful, which means it’s only appealing to the die-hard fans of the novels. Tracking indicates a $33 million opening weekend, far less than the earlier installments.

#3 – 10 Cloverfield Lane

Coming in third should be 10 Cloverfield Lane (read our review). The thriller had a strong debut last week, grossing $24.7 million. It should be able to hold well, since the response has been very positive. Critics raved about the film heading into its premiere, and viewers are equally impressed. That’s helped 10 Cloverfield Lane gain a higher platform, and now more moviegoers will be curious to see what the mysterious project is all about.

Mary Elizabeth Winstead John Goodman 10 Cloverfield Lane Box Office Prediction: Zootopia vs. Allegiant


#4 – Deadpool

Our choice for fourth is Deadpool (read our review), which came in third last week with $10.9 million. Business is starting to slow down for the first big blockbuster of 2016, but there’s still interest in checking it out. There’s still one more week before Batman V Superman scoops up the superhero crowd, so the Merc With a Mouth should be able to make the most of the opportunity and hang in the top of the charts for the time being.

#5 – London Has Fallen

Rounding out the top five should be London Has Fallen (read our review). The action sequel has failed to leave much of an impression, making just $42.3 million domestically in its run. The demand to see it is running low, so the film should see another decrease in ticket sales.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Zootopia
  2. 10 Cloverfield Lane
  3. Deadpool
  4. London Has Fallen
  5. The Brothers Grimsby

Actuals:

  1. Zootopia
  2. 10 Cloverfield Lane
  3. Deadpool
  4. London Has Fallen
  5. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Next Week: How high can Batman V Superman go?

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)