Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Zootopias opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of March 11 – 13, 2016.

This weekend, 10 Cloverfield Lane plays in 3,391 theaters, The Brothers Grimsby debuts in 2,235 locations, and The Young Messiah opens in 1,761 theaters. In limited release, The Perfect Match opens in 925 theaters and Remember plays on an unspecified number of screens.

#1 – Zootopia

Look for last week’s champ, Zootopia (read our review), to repeat in the #1 spot during its second weekend. The latest from Disney Animation set a new record for the studio last week, opening with an impressive $75 million domestically. It has been able to capitalize on the strong word-of-mouth, as it’s one of the best reviewed films of the year and sports cross-generational appeal that few other movies have right now. Zootopia‘s target demographic of families doesn’t have much else to check out, so the road’s clear for this one to dominate the box office again.

Zootopia Box Office Box Office Prediction: Zootopia vs. 10 Cloverfield Lane


#2 – 10 Cloverfield Lane

Our pick for second is 10 Cloverfield Lane, a horror/thriller film that’s related to the 2008 monster hit Cloverfield. The film’s arrival is something of a surprise (very few knew about its existence until the trailer debuted in January), but that level of secrecy doesn’t seem to be hurting the film’s commercial prospects. Even though Paramount has had a limited amount of time to string together a marketing campaign, 10 Cloverfield Lane is shaping up to be a sizable success for them. Projections currently have it pegged for $24 million in its first three days. That’s much lower than the original Cloverfield ($40 million), but that film had a phenomenal viral marketing campaign that lasted more than a couple months.

The Cloverfield connection should help 10 Cloverfield Lane bring in moviegoers, but the film is also getting a nice boost from critics. Early reviews have been universally positive, with the pundits saying that it’s a smart, tense piece of genre entertainment. With that kind of reaction, people will be more inclined to check out the mystery project in the theater, which could lead to a nice financial haul when it’s all said and done.

#3 – Deadpool

Coming in third should be Deadpool (read our review). The film’s run as the box office champ came to an end last week, but the comic book adaptation is still drawing in decent crowds. It made $16.7 million during its fourth weekend, and even though the buzz surrounding it is starting to quiet down, Deadpool should be able to hang around the top five for one more week at least. It’s been holding well throughout its run.

Deadpool and Colossus Box Office Prediction: Zootopia vs. 10 Cloverfield Lane


#4 – London Has Fallen

Our choice for fourth is London Has Fallen (read our review), which opened in second place last week with $21.6 million. The action sequel is trailing its predecessor by a considerable margin, and due to the poor reviews, interest in seeing it is very low. Now, there are plenty of other films playing that have generated a stronger reception, meaning there won’t be much demand for London Has Fallen. It should begin to start falling down the charts.

#5 – The Brothers Grimsby

Rounding out the top five in a bit of a disappointment should be The Brothers Grimsby, a new comedy starring Sacha Baron Cohen. The funny man behind hits like Borat ($128.5 million) shouldn’t be expecting another hit. His schtick has seemed to have worn off on viewers; a few years back, The Dictator made just $59.6 million domestically. Early reviews for The Brothers Grimsby have been leaning on the negative side of the spectrum, with the consensus being that it’s an uneven comedy. With something like Deadpool still in theaters, that’s a death blow and it shows in Grimsby‘s projections: $5.5 million for its opening weekend.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Zootopia
  2. London Has Fallen
  3. Deadpool
  4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
  5. Gods of Egypt

Actuals:

  1. Zootopia
  2. London Has Fallen
  3. Deadpool
  4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
  5. Gods of Egypt

Next Week: The Divergent Series: Allegiant, Zootopia, 10 Cloverfield Lane, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office [1] [2] (Opening Weekend Projections)