Box Office Prediction: ‘X-Men: Days of Future Past’ vs. ‘Godzilla’

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X Men vs. Godzilla Box Office Prediction: X Men: Days of Future Past vs. Godzilla

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Godzilla’s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 23 – 25, 2014.

This weekend, superhero sequel X-Men: Days of Future Past debuts at 3,900 theaters and romantic comedy Blended opens in 3,500 theaters. In limited release, Chef expands to 498 locations, while Cold in July plays in six theaters and Words and Pictures gets an unspecified release.

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#1 – X-Men: Days of Future Past

Coming in first this week should be the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, Days of Future Past. With Fox looking to use the film as a launching pad for bigger things (i.e. Apocalypse), expectations are undoubtedly high for the sequel and early indications are that the studio could be very pleased with the end result. Early tracking is pointing at a $125 million opening weekend, which would be the highest in the series by a mile.

It doesn’t hurt that Days of Future Past is also getting strong reviews leading up to its debut. With director Bryan Singer returning to the helm (he called the shots on the well-received first two installments), it appears as if Fox’s tentpole is generating positive word-of-mouth once again. Trailers and TV spots have also played up the star-studded ensemble cast, which includes fan favorites like Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen, Jennifer Lawrence, Michael Fassbender, and of course Hugh Jackman, giving the uninitiated some incentive to check this out. Despite some questionable burger commercials, it looks like the new X-Men film is in great shape for a lucrative run.

X Men Days of Future Past Wolverine drinking Box Office Prediction: X Men: Days of Future Past vs. Godzilla

#2 – Godzilla

Look for last week’s champ, Godzilla (read our review), to fall to second this weekend. Gareth Edwards’ reboot of the famed movie monster had a phenomenal first three days, scoring the second-highest domestic opening of 2014. Still, it won’t be enough to beat out Days of Future Past. Blockbusters such as this typically see a major decrease after opening weekend; even more so when another highly anticipated film hits theaters the following week. The $93.1 million intake will make the aforementioned fall softer than most – and the positive reviews will give it some legs – but there aren’t many movies that can contend with a high profile comic book adaptation.

#3 – Blended

Adam Sandler’s new vehicle Blended is our pick for third. Even though his films score some awful reviews, the comedic actor can still draw in a sizable audience. His last film, 2013’s Grown Ups 2, opened to $41.5 million en route to a $133.6 million domestic total. Granted, not all of his movies have been hits (2012’s That’s My Boy only made $36.9 total), but that seems to be more of an exception than the rule. Blended won’t win any new converts, but Sandler’s fan base should turn out for his latest reunion with Drew Barrymore.

Given the competition of a massive superhero film and Godzilla, we don’t expect this to open that high, but as a fresh comedy, it will no doubt emerge as a counter-programming option for moviegoers looking for an alternative to summer action movies. Early estimates have it opening at around $24 million.

blended Box Office Prediction: X Men: Days of Future Past vs. Godzilla

#4 – Neighbors

Coming in fourth should be Neighbors (read our review). The R-rated “frat vs. family” comedy has done very well for itself, raking in $90.5 million in two weeks. It came in second last weekend with more than $25 million, but now we expect it to fall down the charts. Days of Future Past will take up a sizable chunk of this weekend’s audience and Blended is going after comedy fans. That said, Neighbors has been holding strong enough for it to remain in the top five for at least one more week.

#5 – The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Rounding out the top five should be The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (read our review). The lukewarm reception hasn’t done Marc Webb’s sequel any favors, as Sony’s Marvel adaptation continues to slide week by week. Making $16.8 million last weekend, that number was only good enough for third place, indicating that despite the popularity of the Spider-Man character, moviegoers might be tiring of his cinematic exploits. The arrival of the hotly anticipated Days of Future Past will reel in the same demographic target as Amazing Spider-Man 2, causing business to go down yet again.

#10 – Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Our tiebreaker this week is Captain America: The Winter Soldier (read our review), which finished in eighth place last week.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Screen Rant Underground Logo Header Box Office Prediction: X Men: Days of Future Past vs. Godzilla

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • X-Men: Days of Future Past – 3,900+ theaters
  • Blended – 3,500 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • Cold in July – 6 theaters
  • Words and Pictures – unspecified
  • Chef – 498 theaters (expanding)

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Godzillas opening): Sal reports that Chris B. and Peter Gecko emerged victorious from a seven-way tie with perfect 15s and correct tiebreakers.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – Godzilla (3)
  • #2 – Neighbors (3)
  • #3 – The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (3)
  • #4 – Million Dollar Arm (3)
  • #5 – The Other Woman (3)
  • #10 – Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
  • Final Score: 15 points

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

TAGS: box office

39 Comments

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  1. Can you imagine how many ruined trousers Fox would have if Godzilla beat out X Men this weekend

  2. I’m optimistic about DoFP. I think Godzilla will still bring in 40-50 million this weekend. It wouldn’t be surprising to see it hit 180-200 million domestic and 600+ million globally.

    • $93 million opening means $200 million plus guaranteed unless it falls by 70% or more in its second weekend.

    • I think Godzilla will be at #2 but I am thinking around 20-30 million. A lot of people are hyped about DOTFP

  3. 1.X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2.Godzilla
    3.Blended
    4.Neighbors
    5.The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    10.Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return

  4. It sucks how movies cannibalize each other these days. I want both Godzilla and X-Men to make big bank, they will but it just sucks these movies aren’t getting enough time to reach their full potential with like multiple blockbusters releasing every weekend.

    • Hollywood needs to realize that you don’t need to release your triple A blockbuster films during the summer, I think Captain America made that clear last month.

      • Not to mention Lego Movie 2 months prior.

    • Yep. It’s far too expensive if people are to drive, pay about $15-18 per 3-d/IMAX ticket and possibly pay for overpriced theater [junk] food. Not to mention it’s sucking up roughly about 2 hours per flick of people’s time.

      It’s too bad they can’t scale back production costs for these movies, because maybe then theaters would start charging less on average to actually reflect the recession…but, they wouldn’t make back their 100-200 million dollar budgets. So yeah, it’s a competition that’s not really talked about.

  5. X-Men, Cap-A., Spiderman, and Godzilla…there are four there on the list I plan to see. The three superhero ones I will buy on DVD to watch. Godzilla I will watch when available on Netflix. In for eating alot of popcorn, I think.

    • Wait for Godzilla on Netflix? Ahaha, you’ll be waiting a couple years for that one, or forever.

    • Swap Spider-Man & Godzilla. Matter of fact, go to redbox for Spider-Man, save yourself a couple dollars (unless you’re already subscribed to netflix). Godzilla is actually awesome on IMAX screens. It might not be as good on regular 3-D since the depths would be lower.

  6. I think it would be very interesting if Godzilla beat DOFP this weekend. It seems like everyone is telling me to see Godzilla because of how awesome it is, which makes me think that a lot of people will choose it over X-Men, which is just another comic book movie. Fox would s*** themselves if that happened though.

    • Who wants to see another TIRED old comic book movie when you can see something fresh and ORIGINAL. Like yet another Godzilla reboot.

    • Yeah but Godzilla would be lucky to make half of what DOFP makes this weekend.

      • Agreed. The hype for DOTFP is just through the roof and Godzilla will drop because the word of mouth(here at least) isn’t all that impressive. I see DOTFP pulling over 100 whereas Godzilla I see having a huge decline to around 20-30.

  7. I will not be surprised if adam sandler’s new movie beats godzilla for #2. You would be surprised by how many idiots eat up his crap.

  8. I’ve seen Belle three times. Great film.

    When Singer was brought back for Days of Future Past I could not work out why as First Class was far and away the best instalment of the franchise hitherto. Given that the response for DOFP has been so positive I am looking forward to it.

    • Couldn’t agree more with you !
      I think Vaughn as a Director helped a lot,and its a shame they got rid of him for Singer !
      Real shame !

      • I just watched the movie, the best of xmen series.

        • Yes, people who already got to go to the early screening have already said it’s by far the best in the series which is why I think the hype for this movie is through the roof.

    • First Class was a good, proper film, but it’s not action-packed. Even so, the actions scenes are not over the top – NOT what you would put in a summer movie that has to compete with other actioners. From what I’m reading about DoFP, it’s going to have plenty of good mutant & sentinel action.

      Also, when I saw the preview for it today in 3-D, the sentinels look 10x better than they do in commercials. 3-D/IMAX should be top priority if you go see it, IMO, and IF the reviews stay good once more people go see it. You don’t want to be tricked by paid “reviewers”.

  9. Lol questionable burger commercials

  10. 1.X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2.Godzilla
    3.Blended
    4.Neighbors
    5.The Other Woman
    10.CA TWS

  11. Excited to see X:DOFP this weekend. Already got my online ticket.
    Curious to see Chef. I’ll wait for the review on that one

  12. 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2. Godzilla
    3. Blended
    4. Neighbors
    5.The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    10. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

  13. 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2. Godzilla
    3. Neighbors
    4. Blended
    5. The Amazing Spiderman 2
    10. Captain America: Winter Soldier

  14. I think it`s a sad day that Godzilla will garner all that dosh because in all honesty it is not what it should have been. You could say, it doesn`t even come close.

  15. 1. X Men
    2. Blended
    3. Godzilla
    4. Neighbours
    5. TASM 2
    10. Chef

  16. 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2. Godzilla
    3. Blended
    4. Neighbors
    5. Million Dollar Arm
    10. Rio 2

  17. 1. X-Men: DoFP
    2. Godzilla
    3. Blended
    4. Neighbours
    5. TASM

    10. Rio 2

  18. X-Men is going tu brake u GODZILLA

  19. 1. X-Men: Days of Futures Past
    2. Godzilla
    3. Blended
    4. Neighbors
    5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    10. Rio 2

  20. If Cyclops was in Godzilla, imagine the numbers…..

  21. 1) X-Men: DOFP
    2) Godzilla
    3) Blended
    4) Neighbors
    5) TASM2
    10) Captain America: The Winter Soldier

  22. 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    2. Godzilla
    3. Neighbors
    4. Blended
    5. Million Dollar Arm
    10. Rio 2

  23. I really hope that Godzilla(2014) eventually breaks that $200 million mark,It will make his triumphant comeback all the more sweeter. After Captain America:The Winter Solider,Godzilla(2014) is my next favorite movie of this year,so far.

  24. GODZILLA is going to crush X-Men this weekend.

  25. 1. Star Trek V: The Final Frontier
    2. Godzilla
    3. Blended
    4. Neighbors
    5.The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    10. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

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