Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Angry Birds Movie‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 27 – 29.

This weekend, X-Men: Apocalypse opens in 4,148 theaters, and Alice Through the Looking Glass debuts in 3,763 locations.

#1 – X-Men: Apocalypse

Our pick for first is X-Men: Apocalypse, the latest installment in the highly successful X-Men film franchise. Dating back to its start in 2000, this series has been a consistent moneymaker for Fox, with 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past posting $233.9 million during its domestic run. That movie is widely seen as one of the better X-Men adaptations, meaning that anticipation has been high for its sequel. Apocalypse also follows the current superhero trend of featuring a large ensemble. Not only do the mainstays of the First Class prequel trilogy (Professor X, Magneto, Mystique, etc.) return, they’re joined by younger versions of famous mutants such as Jean Grey, Cyclops, and Storm. Also, fan-favorite actor Oscar Isaac is portraying the villain, capping off a killer cast loaded with stars and talent.

One thing Apocalypse will have to overcome is its mixed critical reception. The reviews have not been all that favorable, so the film may not get a nice word-of-mouth boost a la Deadpool or Captain America: Civil War. This is the fourth major comic book adaptation of 2016 already, so some audience members might choose to skip a possibly mediocre entry in favor of seeing something else. However, this factor shouldn’t have too much of an impact on Apocalypse‘s commercial prospects. It’s still a massive tentpole and superhero films have obviously never been more popular. Projections indicate it will bring in around $82 million over the Memorial Day weekend; a very strong start.

x men apocalypse post credits scene Box Office Prediction: X Men Apocalypse vs. Alice in Wonderland 2


#2 – Alice Through the Looking Glass

Coming in second should be Alice Through the Looking Glass, the sequel to the 2010 $1 billion hit Alice in Wonderland. Normally, a followup to such a massive success would be considered more of a sure thing at the box office, but Looking Glass is the exception to the rule. Wonderland was not very well received upon its release, and its high figures had more to do with being the first 3D film in the post-Avatar world than being a captivating fantasy tale. Since Wonderland didn’t win many people over, it’s doubtful that Looking Glass can reverse those fortunes. Like its predecessor, the film hasn’t generated the best reviews, which will hurt its overall appeal. Throw in the fact that it’s been six years between installments, and one has to wonder if the demand is there. Alice should do OK on its own thanks to its monopoly on premium format theaters, but it won’t be much of a challenger for X-Men. Tracking indicates a $61 million 4-day weekend.

#3 – The Angry Birds Movie

Look for last week’s champ, The Angry Birds Movie (read our review) to slide to third in its second weekend. The animated game adaptation pulled off the upset of Civil War in its debut, appealing to families thanks to its colorful cast of characters and eye-popping visuals. Angry Birds should still be able to draw in that demographic, but it will take a little bit of a hit in business with the arrival of two new high-profile releases. Particularly, Alice with its PG rating will be an obstacle tough to hurdle. As one of the few animated movies around, Angry Birds won’t see too much of a decline, but it didn’t open high enough last week to realistically repeat in the top spot.

Angry Birds Movie 2016 Review Box Office Prediction: X Men Apocalypse vs. Alice in Wonderland 2


#4 – Captain America: Civil War

Our pick for fourth is Captain America: Civil War (read our review), which came in second last week with $32.9 million. Marvel’s latest smash has been one of the biggest films of 2016, on the precipices of becoming the highest-grossing film domestically of 2016. It’s enjoyed a clear road up to this point, but now its target demographic will be focused on Apocalypse and catching the new superhero film. Civil War should still post solid numbers due to the positive reviews, but it won’t be able to stay near the top of the charts.

#5 – Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Rounding out the top five should be Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (read our review). The comedy sequel is greatly below the original in terms of box office performance, but it should stick around the top five for at least one more weekend. The word-of-mouth has been solid, and comedy fans don’t have many other options available at this point in time, so those looking for a reprieve from the big-budget films will check Neighbors out.

Last Week’s Recap

Our picks:

  1. Captain America: Civil War
  2. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
  3. The Angry Birds Movie
  4. The Nice Guys
  5. The Jungle Book

Actuals:

  1. The Angry Birds Movie
  2. Captain America: Civil War
  3. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
  4. The Nice Guys
  5. The Jungle Book

Next Week: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)