Very early box office projections for Wonder Woman suggest the film will gross about $83 million domestically during its opening weekend. Warner Bros. and DC have experienced a bit of trouble getting the DC Extended Universe off the ground, but it looks as though 2017 will be a year that could make up for previously mixed results. By all accounts, both Wonder Woman and Justice League have experienced generally good buzz, with the Gal Gadot solo film specifically receiving positive news throughout its production. Not only have the trailers so far managed to highlight the film’s incredible action and World War I setting while not revealing the film’s big villain, but it will ride off the impressions left by the Amazonian’s scene stealing role in Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice.
It is because of these factors and more that Wonder Woman was looked to be a potential big hit for the studio, and it needs to do that as it has a prime summer release date that is surrounded by other big franchises. Even though the film is still two months away from debuting as of the time of this writing, the early tracking for the movie has its opening weekend falling behind previous DCEU projects.
According to BoxOfficePro, the current long range tracking for Wonder Woman is set at $83 million over its first three day weekend. This would project the film to earn $225 million domestically at the box office. While these are undoubtedly favorable results, both of these numbers would be below any of the previous three DCEU movies.
Tracking has had a hit and miss track record in recent years, resulting in a number of films over or under-performing at the box office, so there is always a possibility that these numbers could climb in the weeks to come. Undoubtedly, the reviews for the film will also play a factor in determining how many people rush out to see it immediately, and if the actual reviews are similar to the reactions to the marketing, then it is very plausible to see Wonder Woman‘s numbers rise.
That said, it is somewhat surprising to see Wonder Woman only targeting this much for its opening weekend. Again, this is far from a bad opening, but after Man of Steel ($116.6M), Suicide Squad ($133.6M), and Batman V Superman ($166M) opened significantly higher, this drop off is not what is needed to help launch a potential franchise. These numbers could just be due to stronger competition that is had in the summer season, or it could be a result of general audiences becoming less interested in the DCEU after its previous efforts.
The bottom line is Wonder Woman needs a strong opening weekend in a summer that is absolutely packed. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales comes out the week before and should have carryover in a second week, while movies like The Mummy, Cars 3, and Transformers: The Last Knight will diminish the returns that Wonder Woman could have in the following weeks. Hopefully excitement will only continue build in the weeks to come and Wonder Woman will surpass these projections.